The North Korean leader, Kim Jong-un, is being seen yet again in the Pyongyang state media walking arm-in-arm with his tween-aged daughter Ju-ae — apparently to prove he means business when he vows to vastly increase missile production.

What, though, do missiles have to do with Ju-ae?

Mr. Kim may think the image of him and his daughter before row upon row of Hwasong-12 and KN-23 missiles is the way to convince the world that he’s a great father defending his country for the sake of all North Korean families.

It might be that the stout strongman is promoting his daughter for when he’s no longer around. He’s putting Ju-ae, who seems to have inherited her father’s body mass index, on display for the third time since showing her off along with her mother, Ri Sol-ju.

Most of all, Mr. Kim finds his daughter a convenient prop for publicizing yet again his decision to escalate the confrontation with South Korea to one of its highest levels since the truce ending the Korean War was signed in July 1953.

The image “features the largest number of North Korean intermediate-range ballistic missiles ever shown in one place at one time, more than during military parades,” according to a writer for NK News, a website in Seoul, Colin Zwirko.

This, Mr. Zwirko suggests, underscores Mr. Kim’s “call to ‘exponentially increase’ missile production in 2023.” Yet is Ju-ae’s appearance, grasping her father’s arm, intended to distract from another reality — that the status of the missiles is far from clear?

That is, it’s not at all certain North Korean engineers know how to fix a warhead to such short-range tactical missiles as Mr. Kim has said can reach anywhere in South Korea. This is one of the key questions analysts look at in respect of the North.

The Hwasong 17 ICBM “clearly has a big enough diameter for the ‘warheads’ (really mock-ups) that North Korea has shown thus far,” a Korea expert at the RAND Corporation, Bruce Bennett, explains via email. It’s bigger than the KN-25.

That’s “likely too small for the nuclear weapons that Kim has shown,” Mr. Bennett says. “The warhead needs to be a fair amount smaller than a 600 mm diameter to fit in the warhead covering. This is one of the key tasks of miniaturization.”

For that reason, Mr. Bennett says, “the North may actually be better off putting a warhead on a longer-range missile than on a short-range missile, which has a smaller diameter.” In any event, keep an eye on future tests.

A professor at Ewha University in Seoul, Leif-Eric Easley, says that “if North Korea conducts its long-awaited seventh nuclear test in the New Year, it may be to demonstrate a lower-yield warhead for use on tactical nuclear missiles.” 

No matter what North Korea can or cannot do with a tactical missile, experts believe the North-South standoff is going to worsen — with Mr. Kim “disavowing diplomacy and threatening to mass produce nuclear weapons.”

Mr. Easley has predicted that South Korea’s president, Yoon Suk-yeol, “is likely to further increase South Korea’s defense capabilities and readiness.” Mr. Yoon has said he might suspend an agreement reached with the North by President Moon.

That was with Mr. Kim at the summit at Pyongyang in 2018, in which the two sides pledged no more hostilities. “North Korea’s end-of-year missile tests involved relatively minor capabilities,” Mr. Easley said.

The North’s “next major launch,” though, “could be an attempt to put a spy satellite into orbit, or to show progress with solid-fuel engines,” capable of powering missiles far more quickly from a launch pad than the liquid-fuel engines.

The father-daughter photos may count for more, though, in terms of Mr. Kim’s dreams for his country and his dynasty. “Every move means something in politics,” Jung Min-ho writes in the Korea Times. 

The photo “leaves little doubt over who is next in the line,” a senior analyst at Seoul’s Sejong Institute, Cheong Seong-chang, tells the paper. “That future is the one where the North will continue to develop nuclear weapons,” and Ju-ae “will receive the baton to carry on the mission.”