New Jersey will go to the polls on Tuesday to choose the Democratic and Republican candidates for governor, setting the stage for one of the most important races of the new Trump era. The state’s rapid shift to the right in the last four years has Democrats hoping they can reverse the trend now that President Trump is back in the White House and front-and-center for voters. 

On the Republican side, it has not been much of a contest since the 2021 nominee for governor, Jack Ciattarelli, a former state representative, jumped in the race last year and won Mr. Trump’s endorsement. Mr. Ciattarelli, according to three of the most recent polls, leads his closest primary opponent by at least 25 points. 

Four years ago, he nearly won the governorship in an upset, losing to Governor Murphy by just three points in a state that President Biden won by 16 points the year prior. 

Mr. Murphy’s departure from office opened the floodgates for a number of prominent, up-and-coming New Jersey Democrats to step up to run. The leading candidates, according to polling, are Congresswoman Mikie Sherrill, Mayor Ras Baraka of Newark, and Mayor Steven Fulop of Jersey City. 

While Mr. Ciattarelli appears to be cruising to victory with a unified party at his back heading into November, the Democrats’ primary has grown negative in recent weeks as candidates battle for the position of standard-bearer in a state that has swung wildly to the right. 

Besides New York — which moved 10.5 percent to the right between 2020 and 2024 — no state moved more toward Republicans than the Garden State last year. Vice President Harris won the state by less than six points in 2024, a 10-point swing to the right in only four years. 

Whoever wins the Democratic nomination for governor will be heading into a much different environment than Mr. Murphy did in his re-election bid four years ago. Although Mr. Trump could be a drag on the Republican statewide ticket, the GOP has scored some structural wins that could see it pull off an upset. 

According to an analysis by the local outlet NJ.com, Republicans have done a far better job at registering new voters than Democrats have in the last four years. Since the 2021 gubernatorial election, the GOP has added 37,000 voters to its rolls, increasing the number of registered Republicans in 20 of the state’s 21 counties. 

Democrats, on the other hand, have registered 9,700 voters in that same period. Across the state, 17 counties now have fewer Democrats than they did during the 2021 race for governor. 

Virginia and New Jersey are the only two states that hold gubernatorial elections the year after a presidential election, and they are often considered referenda on the occupant of the White House. President Obama’s party lost both states’ top offices in 2009, while both governorships went blue in 2017. 

Mr. Trump and Elon Musk have both loomed large over the Democratic primary race, but the commander-in-chief has been especially prevalent since Mr. Baraka was arrested at an ICE facility in May. He was charged by the state’s U.S. attorney, who was also a senior advisor to the president’s 2024 campaign, though the charges were later dropped. 

Days after he was arrested, Mr. Baraka began airing an ad in Spanish that showed him being arrested at the facility while a narrator describes the mayor as the best person to battle Mr. Trump. 

“Mayor Baraka is fighting this administration that is terrorizing working New Jersey families with illegal deportations and detentions,” the ad says. “There is only one candidate for Governor who’s not just talking but actually doing something to stand up to Trump.”

After the arrest, Mr. Baraka’s poll numbers shot up, putting him in second place, just four points behind Ms. Sherrill. According to more recent polling from Emerson College, however, Messrs. Baraka and Fulop are tied for a distant second behind Ms. Sherrill, with both men taking 11 percent of the primary vote and Ms. Sherrill taking 28 percent. 

As Mr. Baraka pitches an uber-liberal vision for the state — including reparations and a universal basic income — Ms. Sherrill is telling New Jersey Democrats that she is the only person who can keep a Republican out of the governor’s mansion come November. 

On May 21, Ms. Sherrill began airing a new television ad focused squarely at Mr. Ciattarelli. Without mentioning any of her Democratic primary opponents, Ms. Sherrill’s ad declares that she is “the Democrat Republicans fear.” The ad also highlights her record as a Navy helicopter pilot, federal prosecutor, and congresswoman who flipped a seat in the House to blue from red in 2018.