After several quarters of Republican dominance in party affiliation, new Gallup data suggest that Americans are now leaning back toward the Democratic Party, though the shift comes at a time when the party faces record-low favorability ratings.

According to Gallup’s second-quarter 2025 polling averages, 46 percent of American adults identify as Democrats or as independents who lean Democratic, compared to 43 percent who identify as Republicans or lean Republican. The shift follows a period in late 2024 when Republicans enjoyed a four-point lead.

“The partisan shifts this year are primarily seen in the partisan leanings of political independents, whose temporary loyalties could easily change,” Gallup said in its report.

In an interesting twist, the percentage of Americans identifying outright as Democrats has actually decreased slightly; however, the number identifying as independents who lean Republican has also declined. This suggests a growing importance of independents in shaping party affiliation trends.

“These findings highlight the fluid nature of political leanings among Americans, especially those with weaker party attachments,” Gallup notes.

While more Americans are leaning Democratic, the party’s public image has taken a significant hit. Gallup reports that the Democratic Party’s favorability rating has dropped to 34 percent, the lowest recorded since it began tracking these figures in 1992. The previous low was 36 percent, recorded in November 2014 after Democrats lost control of the Senate.

Republicans, meanwhile, fare slightly better, with a 38 percent favorable rating, though this is also a decline compared to their 44 percent rating in November 2024 in the aftermath of the party’s election successes.

The Democratic Party’s low favorability rating is due not only to poor perceptions among the broader public but also within its base. Seventy-three percent of Democrats now view their own party favorably, a sharp drop from 87 percent last November, when Vice President Harris got crushed in the Electoral College, 312-226.

This contrasts with a 91 percent favorability rating of the Republican Party among Republican identifiers. Independents also view both parties unfavorably, with only 27 percent rating the Democratic Party favorably and 28 percent favoring the Republican Party.

Gallup’s data suggest that the public remains divided on the perceived competencies of both major parties. Similar percentages of Americans believe the Democratic Party (35 percent) and the Republican Party (36 percent) are better equipped to manage the federal government effectively. Additionally, more Americans feel the Republican Party (42 percent) is better at bringing about necessary changes than the Democratic Party (37 percent).

Despite their recent gains in affiliation, Democrats may face challenges capitalizing on this trend. Their record-low favorability rating suggests that their lead among independents could be fragile. Additionally, the public’s skepticism about their ability to effectively govern or bring about significant change further complicates the party’s outlook.

“The political implications of these findings, including potential gains in upcoming elections, are tempered by the Democratic Party’s low favorability and mixed perceptions of their competence,” Gallup says.