A new poll from the New York Times and Siena College should be cause for alarm in the West Wing and President Biden’s Delaware campaign headquarters as President Trump appears to be solidifying his grasp on his own party and the incumbent president’s coalition appears to be falling apart. A number of defections among young, Black, and Hispanic voters — as well as former Biden voters — could help return Mr. Trump to the White House next year. 

The poll suggests that Mr. Trump now leads Mr. Biden nationally, 48 percent to 43 percent. The margin of error for the poll was just 3.5 percent, meaning Mr. Trump has pulled into a significant lead outside of that margin of error. 

Among nearly all demographics, Mr. Trump has made major inroads since he last appeared on a national ballot. These demographics delivered Mr. Biden razor-thing victories in states like Georgia, Arizona, Wisconsin, Michigan, Nevada, and Pennsylvania. Across key swing states, Mr. Trump only lost the 2020 election — the Electoral College — by about 45,000 votes. 

The Times/Siena poll currently puts Mr. Trump on track to take significant support from Mr. Biden and put it into his own column by November. 

Among young voters — a key demographic that has vaulted Democrats into the White House in the past — Mr. Biden fares especially poorly. He only leads Mr. Trump with voters under the age of 30 by 12 points. In 2020, Mr. Biden won that cohort by 24 points. 

For young voters, pollsters found that they are increasingly turned off by Mr. Biden’s support for Israel. But it isn’t just young voters who are concerned. A 51-year-old Democrat from Georgia, Philip Kalarickal,  told the Times that Mr. Biden “ should be doing more to ensure that the Israeli government goes about this in a way that provides safety for them but without the civilian toll.” 

Despite his concerns, Mr. Kalarickal says he will support Mr. Biden in 2024. “I understand that my vote or lack of vote carries a consequence, and I look at the alternative and that’s worse than the current thing. But I do want to register my displeasure. The way I vote doesn’t mean I like it.”

A grave concern for the White House has been the lack of support from Arab-American and Muslim voters in Michigan. In Metro Detroit, there is a sizable number of voters who are frustrated — if not outright enraged — with Mr. Biden’s continued support for the war against Hamas. 

On Tuesday, more than 100,000 Michiganders voted “uncommitted” in the Democratic primary as a protest against Mr. Biden. The incumbent president won the state by just 155,000 in 2020. 

A sizable number of Black voters are also saying they may not vote for the incumbent come November. In 2020, according to the Pew Research Center, 92 percent of Black voters cast ballots for Mr. Biden, while just eight percent voted for Mr. Trump. The Times/Siena poll finds that if the election were held today, 23 percent of Black voters would support Mr. Trump. 

Hispanics — another demographic that helped put Mr. Biden over the top in states like Arizona, Nevada, and Pennsylvania four years ago — are also defecting to the former president. In 2020, Mr. Trump won 38 percent of the Hispanic vote after winning just 25 percent of the demographic in 2016. Now, Mr. Trump leads Mr. Biden among Hispanics, 46 percent to 40 percent. 

Mr. Biden is not only losing key parts of his base, but independent and swing voters as well — including some who voted for him in 2020. According to the Times/Siena poll, Mr. Trump is winning 97 percent of voters who supported him four years ago, while Mr. Biden is only winning 83 percent. In a sign of swing voters defecting, about ten percent of Mr. Biden’s 2020 voters say they will vote for Mr. Trump in November. 

The founder of FiveThirtyEight, Nate Cohn, writes that Mr. Biden’s real problem lies with those independents, not necessarily the Democratic base.

“Democrats should probably root for lower rather than higher turnout in November, a big change from the Obama years,” Mr. Cohn says of concerns about independents showing up to register their dissatisfaction. “These are swing voters,” Mr. Cohn says of those most dangerous to Mr. Biden’s reelection prospects: “People who are explicitly stating to pollsters that they are switching their vote from 2020. There are a substantial number of them.”