New Polling Suggests That Biden Fares Better Against Trump With RFK Jr. in the Race

A new poll from Marist shows the incumbent president leading his top competitor by five points.

AP, file
President Biden on January 5, 2024, and President Trump on January 19, 2024. AP, file

Robert F. Kennedy Jr. is likely to steal more support from President Trump than President Biden, according to a new poll. Mr. Trump’s allies previously told the Sun that Mr. Kennedy would be a greater threat to the 46th president because the scion does especially well with young and Black voters. 

According to a poll from Marist College released Monday, Mr. Biden’s standing has improved across the board in recent weeks. In a five-way race, Mr. Biden leads with 43 percent of the vote, compared to Mr. Trump who wins 38 percent. 

Mr. Kennedy takes 14 percent, while the other candidates — the Green Party’s Jill Stein and left-wing academic Cornel West — each win 2 percent of the vote. 

It’s the second poll in as many days that shows Mr. Kennedy could help Mr. Biden win the White House. In an NBC News poll released Sunday, Mr. Biden trails Mr. Trump by two points, but when the full five-candidate field is laid out before voters, Mr. Biden beats the former president by two points. 

In a two-man race, Mr. Biden leads Mr. Trump by three points in the Marist poll ”51 percent to 48 percent. That’s thanks, in part, to Mr. Biden’s increased support among white voters and independents. 

“Despite a still close contest between President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump, Trump’s support among white voters and independents has splintered. Biden is doing better than he did in 2020 among white voters, and he has eliminated the advantage that Trump had among independents earlier this month,” the poll states. 

A larger chunk of Mr. Biden’s voters only support him because he is running against Mr. Trump, while the 45th president’s supporters are voting for him, not against Mr. Biden. Just 32 percent of Trump supporters say they are voting for him because he is not Mr. Biden, while 67 percent say they are voting affirmatively for him. 

Among Mr. Biden’s supporters, 43 percent say they are voting for him because they “oppose” Mr. Trump, while just 55 percent are voting affirmatively for Mr. Biden. 

According to the poll, majorities have unfavorable views of both men. For Mr. Biden, 42 percent have a positive opinion of him while 51 percent have an unfavorable view of him. For Mr. Trump, 40 percent view him favorably, while 53 percent view him unfavorably. 

“President Biden’s job approval rating is 43 percent among Americans, identical to earlier this month. 51 percent disapprove of the job Biden is doing in office. Looking at intensity, 19 percent of Americans strongly approve of Biden’s job performance compared with 38 percent who strongly disapprove,” the poll states. 

On certain issues, the incumbent president is also seeing majorities of Americans disfavor his handling of the job. On the economy, 54 percent disapprove of his job. In November, 40 percent of Americans said he was handling the war between Israel and Hamas well, but now it’s just 35 percent of Americans who have a positive view of his handling of the crisis. 


The New York Sun

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