Clinton, Bloomberg, Giuliani Get Set To Shift Into High Gear for 2008

Today is the first official day of the 2008 presidential campaign for the four New York politicians being named as possible White House contenders.In the last few weeks Mayor Giuliani, Governor Pataki, Mayor Bloomberg, and Senator Clinton have been barnstorming the country, stumping and raising money for other candidates.Starting this morning, they move from bolstering other candidates to making decisions about their own political futures. They no longer have the midterm elections to turn to when asked about their presidential plans.“Giuliani and Hillary Clinton and everybody else have been making the goodwill trips and debt-obliging trips,” the dean of Baruch College’s School of Public Affairs, David Birdsell, said. “They are doing things that people will owe them for come 2008. In some sense they are already in campaign mode, the question is when the declarations come.”Though none of their candidacies are guaranteed at this point, for those who do decide to run, political analysts predict that they will all wait to declare their candidacies until at least the new Congress is sworn in. The exploratory committees and fund-raisers will serve as the flashing red lights signaling how seriously they are contemplating what to do.“The establishment of exploratory committees is going to be interesting,” Mr. Birdsell said. “That’s when a lot of people will come out of the candidate closet.”Each of the four comes with their own strengths and weaknesses. Mrs. Clinton, for example, has already raised nearly $38 million and spent nearly $29.5 million in an election year when her Republican challenger, John Spencer, was still virtually unknown outside of political circles. If she decides to run she’ll have millions of dollars left over, national name recognition, and a vast database of demographic information on voters nationwide. That sophisticated database could easily help her get a head start in broadening her political infrastructure.But, she is still battling the view within the Democratic Party that she is not electable, partly because of the reputation she garnered as a divisive figure while first lady, and partly because a woman has never been elected president.In the post-election autopsy, her campaign will undoubtedly be poring over New York returns to see how she did in Republican and independent strongholds through the state. If she performs well, the results will strengthen her case that she can compete in a general election. In debates with Mr. Spencer, Mrs. Clinton has said she has made no decisions about 2008 and was focused on reelection to the Senate, though she declined to pledge to serve out her full term. Now that she’s won her seat that answer is no longer usable.Mr. Giuliani, meanwhile, has carved out his own niche. Though political scientists say his more liberal positions on gun control, abortion, and gay rights will be obstacles if he chooses to run in the Republican presidential primary, he has emerged an authority on national security issues.During a nationally televised interview on MSNBC yesterday, Mr. Giuliani said he’d probably make a decision about running sometime early next year.“I think the American people are entitled to a little time off. Don’t you think?” he joked with the show’s host, Tucker Carlson, who noted that the next election cycle begins at sunrise today.Mr. Giuliani said he’d be focusing on his prospects for raising money and putting together an organizational infrastructure. A spokeswoman for Mr. Giuliani, Sunny Mindel, said yesterday it was too premature to discuss plans for fundraisers.Mr. Bloomberg has publicly denied that he will run, but privately his staff is suggesting that he will launch a third party bid.As a self-made billionaire, he does not have to deal with raising money. And, if the political infighting continues he may be able to capitalize on his reputation as a technocrat who is above partisan politics and gets government working. He’ll be able to point to the smoking ban, mayoral control of schools, and decreased crime as evidence. His opponents will use some of those very issues against him.Mr. Bloomberg has also been spreading his support across the country to Democrats, Republicans, and Independents. He has been actively supporting Senator Lieberman, an independent; a Democratic Senate candidate in Missouri, Claire McCaskill; and Rep. Christopher Shays, a Republican of Connecticut.Winning as an independent would be a historic feat for Mr. Bloomberg. And it is still unclear whether his brand of politician would have enough widespread national appeal.Mr. Pataki is the only of the four to have opened an office in the early caucus state of Iowa. Unlike Mr. Giuliani, who has managed to stay politically relevant out of office, Mr. Pataki does not have the same impassioned following. Additionally he has many of the same socially liberal positions Mr. Giuliani has, which could be liabilities in the GOP primary.A Democratic consultant, Evan Stavisky, said he was not convinced any of the candidates would run. “But once the 06 elections are over, common sense dictates that the time has come to begin planning for 08 and you’ll start to see a little more planning on that front,” he said.Mr. Stavisky said coming out of New York as either a Democrat or a Republican is a tough national sell. “But New York is fortunate that we have an opportunity to have a legitimate Democratic presidential frontrunner in Hillary Clinton, a legitimate Republican presidential frontrunner in Rudy Giuliani, and a legitimate third party candidate in Mike Bloomberg.”“Now that the election is over the ball is really in their court,” he said.

Clinton, Bloomberg, Giuliani Get Set To Shift Into High Gear for 2008

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