ALBANY — State Comptroller Thomas DiNapoli estimated yesterday that turmoil on Wall Street could cost New York up to $3.5 billion in tax revenues over the next year and a half while knocking out 40,000 financial sector jobs.

“The preliminary September numbers show the fallout from the Wall Street crisis is starting to hit the state hard,” Mr. DiNapoli said. “We’ve been in trouble for a while and a day like today tells us our troubles are continuing.”

While it’s already difficult to predict tax revenues, yesterday’s House vote to reject a $700 billion bailout plan will increase volatility in the markets and make it harder, Mr. DiNapoli said. Stocks plummeted on Wall Street before and “went precipitously lower” after the 228-205 vote to reject the bill was announced on the House floor. “Markets react to indications of confidence,” he said.

While earlier projections put industry job losses at 25,000, Mr. DiNapoli said the number could reach 40,000 and lead to even more lost jobs, from lawyers to restaurant owners, concentrated in New York City. An estimated decline in Wall Street bonuses to $16 billion would rival the 50% drop that followed the 2001 terrorist attacks that leveled Manhattan’s World Trade Center towers.

Preliminary state revenues for September indicate that personal income tax collections were relatively flat, while sales, business, and other taxes fell about $154 million compared to September 2007, according to the Comptroller’s office. Business tax revenues have been below estimates all year, even as estimates were lowered.

Mr. DiNapoli’s report noted moves by Governor Paterson and lawmakers to cut spending had helped control a crisis with the state’s $120 billion budget, but “the state has to watch its spending — every dime counts in a crisis.”

“Over the past year, financial firms have written off hundreds of billions of dollars in bad debt, which has resulted in a loss of confidence and a destabilization of the financial markets,” the Comptroller’s office said in its report yesterday. “The situation remains fluid, but it is clear that the implications for the national, state and local economies will be substantial. … Consumers, already under pressure from higher energy and food prices, will now have to weather the effects of this financial institution crisis.”

While non-farm employment in New York totaled 8.8 million jobs, higher than a year earlier, the unemployment rate rose to 5.6% in August. “Job losses are expected to mount as the year progresses,” according to the report.

Mr. Paterson said he’ll be issuing a new financial plan next month reflecting the effect of the turmoil in the financial services sector, and Mr. DiNapoli has agreed to join him and legislative leaders Friday to discuss New York’s situation.

The majority leader of the Senate, Dean Skelos, said he and the speaker of the Assembly, Sheldon Silver, will meet Friday with Mr. Paterson to discuss the budget and other fiscal matters.