Giuliani Emerges As Major Asset To Team Weld
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WASHINGTON – As speculation mounted this summer that Governor Pataki would not seek a fourth term next year, Republican attention quietly turned to the only person thought capable of beating the likely Democratic nominee, Eliot Spitzer: Mayor Giuliani. When Mr. Giuliani declined the offer, Republican officials went after what they viewed as the next best thing: one of his friends.
William Weld, who worked with Mr. Giuliani as a lawyer in the Reagan administration, announced his interest in the 2006 governor’s race at Mr. Giuliani’s Manhattan office. Mr. Giuliani is the chairman of the board at Mr. Weld’s private equity firm, Leeds Weld & Company. And later this month, Mr. Giuliani will be the featured guest at a major fund-raising event for Mr. Weld at the St. Regis Hotel in Manhattan, a Republican familiar with the event said.
Will the Giuliani factor help the former Massachusetts governor win in New York?
A spokesman for Mr. Giuliani, Sunny Mindel, laughed when asked if Mr. Giuliani would be endorsing Mr. Weld at the November 30 fund-raiser, as he is widely expected to do. An early endorsement from the popular Mr. Giuliani could peel Republican voters away from a three-time Independence Party candidate who switched party affiliation last month in preparation for a possible fourth run, Thomas Golisano.
Pollsters and other Republican candidates said Mr. Giuliani’s endorsement would be of limited value to Mr. Weld. The popularity of one politician is not ordinarily transferable to another, they said, and, more than one month after announcing his intention to run, Mr. Weld’s showing in the polls still lags behind a former state Assemblyman who nearly won the state comptroller’s race in 2002, John Faso.
“Endorsements are nice to get, but, in the end, the only thing that matters are the grassroots endorsements of the county chairmen,” Mr. Faso said. “And I’m confident that if the chairmen are ever allowed to vote in this regard that I’ll win their vote.”
Mr. Faso’s conservative record makes him a favorite among many upstate Republicans and has led to speculation that Mr. Weld is courting him as a potential running mate. Mr. Faso said he has not been approached with such an offer and that he would reject it if it were made.
“I would not accept any other position on the state ticket,” Mr. Faso said.
A poll by the Siena Research Institute last month showed Mr. Faso neck and neck with Mr. Weld in a race against Mr. Spitzer. Both men received roughly 20% of the vote, as compared to 63% for Mr. Spitzer. An August Siena Research Institute poll had Mr. Golisano winning 28% of the vote against Mr. Spitzer in a head-to-head race.
Another Republican who is eyeing the Republican nomination is New York’s secretary of state, Randy Daniels. Mr. Daniels angered top party officials by saying he is willing to run a primary against Mr. Weld or any other Republican. Like Mr. Faso, Mr. Daniels is close with Conservative Party leaders and has been actively courting their support. No Republican candidate has won statewide office in New York with out endorsement from the Conservative Party since 1974.
“Ultimately, the members of the state committee will decide who will be the nominee of the Republican Party,” a senior adviser to Mr. Daniels, Rob Ryan, said. “Randy Daniels has spent the last two years traveling the state, meeting with Republican leaders, and he expects to be the nominee.”
Mr. Weld is privately telling supporters that he has withering television ads ready to go against Messrs. Golisano and Spitzer. And the support of national Republican donors is likely to pour into his campaign, with several of President Bush’s most generous New York donors, such as Stephen Schwarzman of the Blackstone Group, expected to attend the St. Regis fund raiser.
Political strategists estimate the governor’s race will cost a winning candidate between $40 million and $50 million. Mr. Golisano, a billionaire businessman, spent a record $75 million of his own money on his 2002 race but garnered less than 15% of the vote. A veteran pollster and the director of the Marist Polling Institute, Lee Miringoff, said Mr. Weld will need more than endorsements and a large cash infusion to drive up his weak poll numbers.
“It’s good to have endorsements, and it’s good to generate buzz,” Mr. Miringoff said. “But popularity doesn’t transfer automatically. If the candidate doesn’t have it, it doesn’t help, and if he does have it, it’s a boost. But it doesn’t change the dynamics of a race. Endorsements are coveted, but if a candidate doesn’t have what it takes, they don’t do a whole lot.”