The number of Burmese refugees coming to America is expected to grow after recent clashes between Burma’s military rulers and civilians, including Buddhist monks, have added to Southeast Asia’s teeming refugee camps.

But the recent surge in Burmese refugees coming to America has little to do with sudden changes in the isolated Southeast Asian country. Instead, the increase stems from a stalemate in one of the world’s longest-running civil wars.

The Karen, an ethnic minority, have been fighting for freedom from the Burmese military for more than half a century. Thousands of Karen have been imprisoned, tortured, raped, and displaced, according to human rights groups, while years of international efforts to help settle the conflict have brought little success.

The decision to bring more Burmese refugees to America suggests that governments of countries that receive refugees do not believe that a resolution will come soon, the deputy vice president of resettlement for the International Rescue Committee, Christine Petrie, said.

Another reason for the surge of Burmese refugees, which has risen to thousands entering America annually in recent years from hundreds, has to do with a Bush administration decision to exempt the Karen from a ban on refugees who have provided “material support” to terrorist groups — a broadly defined term under the law that can refer to any armed group, including American-supported pro-democracy fighters.

The ban, a part of the 2005 Patriot Act, has contributed to a drop-off in the number of refugees admitted since the attacks of September 11, 2001, and has been heavily criticized by human rights groups and others who argue that it bars deserving asylum seekers who may have only tentative links to armed groups.