This week, the IOC will conclude its inspections of 2012 Olympic hopefuls with Moscow – the outsider in the strongly contested race. But the NYC2012 team has already hinted at the Russian capital’s possible role as kingmaker in a New York victory, a scenario that fits well in this complex and highly political competition.

Deputy Mayor Daniel Doctoroff described a strategy that has little to do with the technical merits of his bid and everything to do with geography and common sense. He reportedly told the city’s tourism bureau that being the only non-European city on the ballot, New York could leverage this geographical advantage.

A city must receive more than 50% of the votes cast to be elected, so additional voting rounds are held after the bid with the least amount of support is eliminated, and until a winner is declared. Since the IOC rarely awards back-to-back Summer Games to the same continent, the theory is that support for cities that are eliminated in the early rounds will then go to New York to keep the window of opportunity open for Europe in 2016.

Deputy Mayor Mikhail Menn said last month that if Moscow was not chosen for 2012, the city will bid for 2016 and continue until it succeeds. That remark was considered a gaffe because typically bids like to portray urgency and confidence to the IOC – but if New York wins this time around, we’ll likely see a third straight bid from both Paris and Spain (Seville in 2004 and 2008), too. Add to that potential bids from interested parties in Germany and Italy, and there will be significant motive and means for the Eurocentric IOC to elect outside Europe for 2012.

As ironic as it all sounds, geography is such a powerful element in this race that its impact spilled over into the 2010 Olympic Winter Games bid two years ago. Then, the expected European support for a strong entry from Salzburg, Austria, failed to transpire and instead went to a less-qualified bid from South Korea, almost propelling it to a first round victory. Once the European bid was “safely” eliminated, members elected Vancouver instead. Only a few days later, applicants for the 2012 Games – more than half from Europe – were to officially register their intentions.

The Olympic host that America and much of the Western world boycotted in 1980 could indeed be the key for New York this time around if they are to defeat the European trio considered to be ahead of them. If Moscow is eliminated on the first ballot, NYC2012 could pick up a majority of that bid’s support in round two to stand up against Paris, London, and Madrid. If that’s enough to stay alive for another round, support for New York could snowball as further European bids fall off the ballot and it could result in a transatlantic final-ballot showdown.

But before NYC2012 can rely on the early demise of Moscow’s bid, it must first consider the IOC’s penchant for throwing away first-round votes to underdogs to avoid the embarrassment of cities that may be important to the Olympic movement. This phenomenon was last observed in the 2008 election when outsider Istanbul received more votes on the first ballot than technically superior Paris, only to see that support deteriorate when IOC members cast votes indicating their true choice in the second round. The Russian Capital has important links to the past and future of the IOC so it may be premature to assume that it will finish last.

The other factor that cannot be overlooked is the name Juan Antonio Samaranch. The former IOC president was Spain’s ambassador to Moscow for three years prior to his election to the top IOC post in 1980, and he has always held a fondness for the city, even arranging for his Olympic successor to be elected there as he had been 21 years earlier. And although Mr. Samaranch publicly endorses the bid from his home country of Spain, it’s probably not a coincidence that Moscow named its proposed tennis venue after the IOC’s honorary president for life. Still very influential within the IOC, Mr. Samaranch was credited in the awarding of the Games to Barcelona and Beijing.

So while NYC2012 deals with stadium issues and financial guarantees, it is also developing strategies to win – in this case to lock up late-round support by ensuring that IOC members are deeply committed to their first choices – now and for 2016.

Mr. Livingstone is producer of GamesBids.com.