The apparent demise on Monday of the New York 2012 Olympic bid seemed to be almost natural – but not without the drama befitting the city. Contrasting NYC2012’s last minute stadium negotiations in Albany with the 1 million supporters who paraded in Paris’s Champs-Elysees on Sunday reflects the differing levels of experience and maturity of each of these bids.

Not too many people expected New York to win this time around, but in Olympic bid races, underdogs are often victors. NYC2012 has a solid and attractive technical plan, lucrative revenue prospects, a respectable legacy, and an exciting story to go with it – almost everything an IOC member needs to cast a favorable ballot – but the city’s rookie bid isn’t ready for the big leagues yet. Failure to work out the kinks well in advance of the election is just some of the evidence.

First tries are often learning experiences for bids – there is no substitute for IOC reaction and feedback when designing a bid, and it’s often too late to make significant changes in mid-campaign. But a cultural change is also required in the community so that everyone understands where they fit in and why they should jump on board. This takes time. In New York the task is much more difficult, considering the city’s vast size and degree of ethnic diversity. In some cities this change never occurs, making them unsuitable Olympic hosts.

That NYC2012 hasn’t had enough time to make this change New York is made evident by the low public support in IOC polls – the lowest of the five bids – and the lack of understanding of the Olympic project in general. During a recent visit to New York I noticed the lack of a “buzz” about the bid that is usually tangible in other candidate cities during the final run-up to the vote. All of this has culminated with the stadium failure.

The 2012 bid is Paris’s third try in 20 years. Organizers perfected their plans, understand their community, and Parisians accept and support the bid. Because of their experience, Paris is considered a frontrunner in the race and may finally achieve their Olympic dreams.

The nature of Monday’s stadium rejection might be so devastating that it will have repercussions beyond 2012. If New York wants to try again for 2016, the bid committee may have to start planning from scratch in order to accommodate a new stadium site, possibly resulting in a weaker follow-up bid.

From the IOC evaluation report released earlier on Monday it seems that the IOC likes the overall inner-city venue concept, and the stadium’s location is the key to this plan. Lack of smaller venue approvals and other minor deficiencies, such as long elevator waits at the Athlete’s Village that were raised by stadium opponents are all solvable problems not requiring a major reworking of the overall plan. In fact, many small venues were altered for practical purposes in advance of the Athens 2004 Games.

But the Olympic Stadium is a marquee venue that hosts the opening and closing ceremonies as well as the most popular athletic events, and its location is interwoven with transportation and accommodation plans. In recent history, its location has never been changed at the last minute. Now the IOC doesn’t even allow such changes.

Without a stadium, the NYC2012 team is left with two possibilities: pull out of the bid, or go to Singapore for the vote and hope for the best. What would they say about the stadium in their final presentation? How would they feel if they were eliminated on the first ballot? It is not an attractive proposition for bid officials, but ultimately the United States Olympic Committee will make this choice for them.

This week I planned to write about the technical evaluation report and how NYC2012 was closing the gap to become a legitimate contender down to the wire. The report glossed over the questionable financial guarantees, providing momentary relief for bid officials. The wording was overly diplomatic, even for IOC standards, signalling that the evaluation commission wanted to leave the door open for the members to make up their own minds, giving them “permission” to vote for New York. But none of that matters now.

Paris and London bid supporters are quietly reveling in the Jets stadium decision; they can now focus on single European competitors – each other. Barring a miraculous political turnaround, New York supporters should look ahead to 2016 and take careful note of lessons learned.

Mr. Livingstone is the producer of GamesBids.com.