N.Y. GOP Seeks 2006 Senate Candidate
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ALBANY – New York Republicans don’t have a lot of time to bounce back from their drubbing at the polls last week: The race against Senator Clinton is just two years away.
Defeating the former first lady, or at least tarnishing her image, will be a priority for Republicans nationwide in 2006, given Mrs. Clinton’s status as the Democrats’ early front-runner for president in 2008.
The daunting task falls to a weakened state GOP that just allowed Mrs. Clinton’s fellow Democrat, Senator Schumer, to rack up a record-setting 71% of the vote. Republicans in New York also gave up seats in the House of Representatives and both houses of the state Legislature.
And the problem that stymied their campaign against Mr. Schumer – a paucity of Republicans with statewide reputations – hasn’t gone away.
“You need someone who has instant name recognition,” said the government affairs director of the Business Council of New York State, Elliott Shaw. “If the candidate they name has the instant reaction of ‘Who is this?’ you’re going to have an uphill battle.”
“Right now the Republican Party in New York seems to be in a state of crisis,” said one of Mrs. Clinton’s strategists, Howard Wolfson of the Glover Park Group. “Whether or not they can get their act together by ’06 is an open question.”
Many Republicans identify Mayor Giuliani as the candidate with the best chance of defeating Mrs. Clinton, but they expect him to skip the race to focus on the presidential election of 2008.
Others see Governor Pataki as a viable challenger – assuming he doesn’t take a post in the second Bush administration or run for a fourth term.
“He’d be a terrific candidate,” Mr. Shaw said. “He’s proven he can get votes from his own party and from the Democrats, and that’s what it’s going to take.”
After Messrs. Giuliani and Pataki, however, the Republicans run out of candidates with familiar names.
Among those often mentioned as potential contenders for statewide office are Mr. Pataki’s secretary of state, Randy Daniels; members of Congress, such as Peter King of Nassau County, John Sweeney of Saratoga County, and Thomas Reynolds of Erie County; the Erie County executive, Joel Giambra; a state senator from Nassau County, Michael Balboni; the former minority leader of the Assembly, John Faso, and the district attorney of Westchester County, Jeanine Pirro.
It’s unclear that any of these people would be willing to challenge Mrs. Clinton. Some passed up the chance to run against Mr. Schumer, and several are considering campaigns for other offices in 2006, such as governor and attorney general.
The Senate nomination this year eventually went to an assemblyman from Orange County, Howard Mills, who struggled to raise money and received less than a quarter of the vote last Tuesday.
“They don’t have a deep bench,” Mr. Wolfson said of the GOP.
The situation is inspiring some Republicans to look further a field. The chief executive of the public relations firm Political Capital, Alexandra Preate, said Republicans should consider nominating President Bush’s national security adviser, Condoleezza Rice, who is from California, or the wife of the governor, Libby Pataki.
“I’m for drafting Condi Rice,” Miss Preate said. “I’m absolutely serious. …She’s so intelligent and a very likeable person and highly regarded and respected. If Hillary can move to New York, why can’t Condoleezza?”
Mr. Sweeney, Mr. King, and other elected Republicans have publicly criticized their own party leadership for its lackluster performance in this year’s election, and the chairman of the state committee, Alexander Treadwell, recently announced he will be stepping down and taking a seat on the Republican National Committee. With a new chairman due to be elected next week, the party has yet to focus on planning for 2006, according to executive director William McGahay.
Mr. McGahay expressed confidence, however, that the party will mount a more competitive campaign for the Senate next time around. “I don’t think there’ll be any shortage of candidates, national money, or any resource to defeat Hillary Clinton,” he said.
In Washington, the victorious National Republican Senatorial Committee – which added five seats to its majority last Tuesday – is also undergoing a change of leadership, with either Senator Dole of North Carolina or Senator Coleman of Minnesota expected to take over the chair from Senator Allen of Virginia next week.
A spokesman for the committee, Dan Allen, said it’s too soon to speculate about who the Republican candidate will be in New York, but predicted a rigorous campaign.
“There’s obviously a lot of attention that’ll be paid to Hillary Clinton, because there’s a lot of passion out there amongst Republicans and conservatives across the country who have seen her vote time and time again against the Republicans and the president,” Mr. Allen said. “If there’s one candidate that emerges and is strong, they’ll definitely have the resources to get their message out and tap into that polarization she causes.”
Mr. Wolfson pointed out that Mrs. Clinton has the advantages of high approval ratings and a sizeable Democratic plurality among registered voters.
“Under any circumstances it’s difficult for a Republican to win statewide,” he said. “Then when you have a popular incumbent with an outstanding record and the ability to raise money, it becomes even more difficult.”