Comptroller William Thompson, who has no small interest in this year’s election, although he has no opposition himself, has cast his lot with the former Bronx president, Fernando Ferrer. With friends like this, Mr. Ferrer need not worry about enemies. Mr. Thompson is being a good soldier. But his eye is on 2009.

Here’s what Mr. Thompson really wants to see happen. He certainly wants Mr. Ferrer to win the primary outright, and not face a runoff against C. Virginia Fields. If there is a runoff between Mr. Ferrer and the Manhattan borough president, it puts Mr. Thompson in the uncomfortable position of not backing what would seem to be the viable candidacy of a legitimate black hopeful.

So far, there’s no problem. Right now, Ms. Fields’s bid seems to be losing steam quickly. She is low on funds, leaving little hope for her to restore the momentum she briefly had after Mr. Ferrer first flip-flopped on the Diallo issue. Meanwhile, Mr. Ferrer is launching his television commercial schedule this week, in an attempt to seal the deal. In the absence of any positive movement on the part of his opponents, he fills the empty space.

The rest of the Thompson scenario has Mr. Ferrer losing against Mayor Bloomberg, by just enough to clearly identify him as the three-time loser he will become. A very narrow, “we’ve been robbed” kind of loss, similar to the runoff defeat at the hands of Mark Green four years ago, could keep Mr. Ferrer in the game for 2009. This is the last thing Mr. Thompson wants to see.

Mr. Ferrer, on the other hand, needs support from blacks, and needs it now if he is to avoid a runoff with Ms. Fields. This resulted in the announcement on Monday, serving the needs of both Mr. Ferrer and Mr. Thompson.

A fly in the ointment appeared when Mr. Ferrer was told that Mr. Thompson has heaped praise on Mayor Bloomberg for his stewardship of the city’s finances, remarks that the comptroller insists he stands by, even after backing Mr. Ferrer. The technical term for this is lip service.

Mr. Ferrer expressed surprise, but this is what Mr. Thompson is all about. Walk the narrow line, offend no one, play it safe. After all, in four years, Mr. Bloomberg’s endorsement may be more valuable than Mr. Ferrer’s.

Many are asking why the Hispanic Federation poll released last week makes Mr. Ferrer’s Latino support seem so tepid. This poll was, after all, conducted by Mr. Ferrer’s own consultants at Mirram/Global Strategy. It certainly seems to indicate that Mayor Bloomberg is more than holding his own even among the Hispanic voters that one would assume are committed to Mr. Ferrer. One theory holds that the weak Ferrer showing may reassure Mr. Thompson that he can support Mr. Ferrer without worrying too much about a possible Ferrer victory.

There have been hundreds of theories advanced for the Ferrer Hispanic Federation poll numbers, all of them Machiavellian. Maybe the figures are correct. In that case, why wouldn’t Mr. Ferrer simply pull out now and spare himself the embarrassment of a blow- out?

Meanwhile, Democrats are maneuvering as if Mr. Ferrer has already lost the general election. Aside from the conventional wisdom that Mr. Thompson will run for mayor in 2009, the current Bronx president, Adolfo Carrion, has been penciled in to replace Mr. Thompson in the comptroller’s office; Marty Markowitz, the president of Brooklyn, would then run for the office of public advocate. All three men are term-limited in their current jobs. Even Mr. Carrion, who succeeded Mr. Ferrer in Bronx Borough Hall, has arranged for his own small group of Riverdale loyalists, the tiny Northwest Bronx Democratic Alliance, to endorse the mayor. Why rock the boat with a Ferrer victory? It is unlikely that the “ticket” could contain two Latinos.

Unfortunately for those who have already closed the door on 2009, this isn’t 1956, and it’s tough to impose an ethnically balanced ticket the same way Carmine DeSapio used to be able to do. Tickets like Beame, O’Connor, Procaccino, or Lefkowitz, Fino and Gilhooley (my personal favorite) are hard to impose from above in today’s political world.

If Eva Moskowitz wins as Manhattan president this year, you tell her she can’t run for mayor in 2009, and may have to defer her boundless ambition until 2017. Or if Anthony Weiner starts to catch fire this year but falls short, can he be forced to sit out the next election?

So the conventional wisdom says that Democrats have come to the conclusion that Mr. Ferrer is their candidate this year, like it or not. They will pay him lip service, assuming that the mayor will win. That’s why 2009 is so critical. Everyone, especially Mr. Bloomberg and his bank account, is term-limited.

And everything starts fresh in the game of musical chairs, the unintended consequence of term limits. What hath Lauder wrought?