Speculation Mounts About Next Police Commissioner
This article is from the archive of The New York Sun before the launch of its new website in 2022. The Sun has neither altered nor updated such articles but will seek to correct any errors, mis-categorizations or other problems introduced during transfer.
Police Commissioner Raymond Kelly’s term doesn’t end until Mayor Bloomberg leaves office at the end of 2009, but speculation is already mounting about who will take over after he leaves.
“Whoever it is, the next commissioner is going to have a tough act to follow,” a former first deputy commissioner, Joseph Dunne, said. “You need all the qualifications of Ray Kelly.”
Mr. Dunne was widely viewed as the front-runner to be selected as commissioner when Mayor Giuliani tapped Bernard Kerik.
As the scope of the commissioner’s responsibilities have grown beyond daily crime fighting since the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001, a candidate would have to prove that he is capable of keeping crime down and also build on Mr. Kelly’s innovative counterterrorism initiatives, law enforcement sources said.
“The NYPD is much different than it was seven years ago,” the president of the Citizens Crime Commission, Richard Aborn, said. “The person will need a myriad of talents.”
The next mayor would likely take a long look at some of the big name candidates who spearheaded the crime reductions of the late 1990s in New York, several experts said.
Mr. Giuliani’s first police commissioner, William Bratton, who heads the Los Angeles police department, and a deputy to Mr. Bratton in New York, John Timoney, who is now the police chief of Miami, could make the list of potential replacements.
However, some say that the chances of Mr. Bratton, who was appointed this year to a second five-year term in Los Angeles, returning to New York are slim.
“I would be surprised if Bratton came back for a second time,” a policing expert, who is a fellow at the Manhattan Institute and a contributing editor at the City Journal, Heather Mac Donald, said.
Mr. Bratton, who publicly met with Mr. Giuliani earlier this year after their strained relationship attracted some press attention, could be tapped for a federal position by the winner of next year’s presidential election.
“Giuliani met him out there and they kind of smoked the peace pipe,” an adjunct professor at John Jay College of Criminal Justice, Eli Silverman, said.
Mr. Bratton served as an adviser to Hillary Clinton during her race for Senate in 2000.
For Mr. Timoney, who could also be a leading candidate for a federal position, the New York City job may be more enticing.
“I think Timoney would definitely consider returning to New York,” Ms. Mac Donald said. “He was disappointed not to get the job last time around.”
But Mr. Timoney’s chances could be stymied by ethics questions that have been brought recently after a television station in Miami reported he drove a sports utility vehicle that was given to him by a local car dealer.
While speculation builds around the prospects of a mayoral run for Mr. Kelly, he denied that he plans to throw his hat into the race.
“Commissioner Kelly is focused exclusively on the post he currently occupies,” the department’s top spokesman, Deputy Commissioner Paul Browne, said.
Other potential candidates include rising stars within the department who can lay claim to counterterrorism initiatives and low crime rates. One of those candidates currently at One Police Plaza would likely be the department’s head of personnel, Chief Rafael Pineiro, experts said.
“He’s very well qualified; he’s an attorney, and a very bright guy,” the chief of the former Transit Authority Police Department, Michael O’Connor, said. Mr. O’Connor worked in tandem with Mr. Pineiro on the department’s law enforcement Explorers program. “With the changing demographic of the city, it would be hard not to give him an opportunity,” he said.
Another strong contender from inside the department, according to experts, is the chief of the department, Joseph Esposito, a 39-year veteran of the NYPD, who has distinguished himself as an exceptional manager.
“Joe Esposito would make a terrific police commissioner,” Mr. Dunne, who lobbied for Mr. Esposito when he attained his current position as the department’s third in charge, said. “He knows the operations of the department backwards and forwards.”
A less likely scenario would have the next mayor choose a rising national law enforcement star. One of those candidates could be Dean Esserman, the chief of the Providence Police Department. Under Mr. Esserman, who is a Dartmouth College graduate and also worked with New York City’s transit police in the 1990s, the murder rate in Providence last year dropped to its lowest level in 31 years. He is also considered an innovator in community policing initiatives.
Another national candidate could be Commander Andrew Smith of the Los Angeles Police Department, who is responsible for cleaning up several crime-ridden sections of the city, Ms. Mac Donald said.
While Mr. Kelly has a platoon of stalwart supporters in minority communities, some pundits in the black and hispanic communities feel that the department needs to develop a more innovative approach to community relations.
“There is a disconnect between the NYPD and many communities,” a retired city detective and spokesman for 100 Blacks in Law Enforcement Who Care, Marquez Claxton, said. “The next commissioner shouldn’t just continue policy as usual, but ought to move the department forward in terms of community relations, similar to how they have addressed some of the terrorism issues.”
Another possibility is that Mr. Kelly would stay on for an unprecedented third term as commissioner, which would make him the longest tenured commissioner in city history, surpassing Lewis Valentine, who was commissioner from 1934 to 1945. An endorsement from Mr. Kelly would provide a boost to any mayoral candidate.
“If Ray Kelly doesn’t run for mayor, though he is my favorite candidate, the new mayor should make every effort to keep him on as commissioner,” Mayor Koch told the Sun.
“The next mayor should consider Ray Kelly,” Mayor Dinkins, who selected Mr. Kelly as his commissioner in 1992, told the Sun. “If he decides he doesn’t want the job, then the new mayor should definitely consult him.”
With considerable popularity, a declining crime rate, and a reputation as an innovator in developing counterterrorism tactics, Mr. Kelly will find a job market filled with opportunity in 2009 as his second consecutive term draws to a close.
The common logic is that Mr. Kelly, 66, could run for mayor, pursue a lucrative private security position, get tapped for a federal job in a new administration, or even return as police commissioner under a new mayor. But if Mr. Kelly chooses to move on, it would open up the floor for a new candidate to take over.