Tsunami Could Hit Here, Geologists Say

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The New York Sun

Could New York be next?


The earthquake that ravaged coastline communities surrounding the Indian Ocean has reawakened a debate over the possibility that a tsunami could hit New York.


Earlier this year, geologists at a research institute in London warned that an unstable, 200-square-mile chunk of a volcano in the Canary Islands could slide into the Atlantic Ocean, causing a tsunami to slam into the mid-Atlantic coast. The paper, written by a pair of marine geologists at the Benfield Hazard Research Centre, Steve Ward and Simon Day, posited a worst-case scenario of 60-foot waves submerging parts of the East Coast.


In August, when scientists met at a conference to discuss such global geophysical events, known as “Gee Gees,” writers joked that such a disaster could turn Cleveland into a bustling coastal town.


This week’s deadly tsunami has given that scenario – and others like it – serious consideration.


It is doubtful Manhattan would bear the brunt of six-story waves, given the protective lee of Long Island, and new tsunami modeling that suggests the Canary Island scenario to be overwrought. Nevertheless, mass flooding from hurricanes, contaminated water, and evacuation pandemonium in a city of 8 million people and a multiplicity of languages are ever-present concerns facing local emergency management officials.


A marine geologist, Laura Kong, who is the director of the United Nations tsunami program in Honolulu, said most in the field challenged the alacrity with which the worst-case scenario was presented to the public.


While it is true that at some point the chunks will fall into the ocean – that is expected to be triggered by an earthquake in the next 10,000 years – the power of an ensuing tsunami has been overstated, Ms. Kong said.


“In what we have seen in the models that are much more sophisticated,” she said, “the simple answer is the sizes of probable chunks that would slide from a volcano in the Canary Islands are too small to generate a large enough wave that would create a tsunami that would hit New York.”


By contrast, the earthquake that hit deep beneath the Indian Ocean Sunday ripped a 500-mile gash along the sea floor, displacing water that spanned 3,000 miles from Malaysia in Asia to Somalia in Africa.


“Using that analogy, you would need a rupture or some material that is on the order of 1,000 miles to displace that much water to generate enough energy to go across the Atlantic,” Ms. Kong said. “A 200-square-mile chunk of land couldn’t displace enough water.”


Other giant tsunami scenarios, involving fissures in the slopes along the Eastern Seaboard or a huge collapse of sediment, were also unlikely to cause giant tsunamis, Ms. Kong said.


Undersea earthquakes, while unlikely, could cause mass hurricane like flooding in New York, according to a visiting marine geologist at the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution in Woods Hole, Mass., Peter Clift.


“You wouldn’t get the shock of a big wave but you would get flooding,” Mr. Clift said. “I think it would be very expensive, but I don’t think many people would get killed. It would be bad if you are an insurance company.”


In the event of a tsunami here, Mr. Clift, who is a visiting professor from the University of Aberdeen in Scotland, suggested hunkering down with a few tins of baked beans for a couple of days and viewing the flood from the comfort of a high-rise apartment.


“If they are properly built they should stand,” Mr. Clift said. “We’re not talking about a wooden hut in Bangladesh.


“People sitting on the beach at Coney Island, on the other hand, would be worse off,” he said.


Unlike the communities in south Asia that did not have a system in place to warn of the impending tsunami, the Canary Islands, which are in the Atlantic off the coast of Morocco, are heavily monitored.


Likewise, since the September 11 attacks, New York City’s Office of Emergency Management has implemented programs to better communicate information to the public. The agency, which takes the lead during a citywide disaster, has posted evacuation guidelines as well as suggestions on how to prepare for a disaster on its Web site at www.nyc.gov/html/oem/.


The office advises people to prepare a “go bag” that includes photocopies of important documents – leases, deeds, birth certificates – as well as cash, water, an energy bar, and a flashlight, among other essential items. It should be readily available and able to be carried at a moment’s notice.


Spoiled water supplies are the first concern during an emergency. Oceanic flooding could affect the water supply and the city’s sewer system’s tide gates, which close during high tide to limit the infusion of salt water into the drinking system. Still, ocean water rarely contaminates drinking water, since the city’s upstate water system comes from wells dug in remote and elevated points in the Catskills, according to a spokesman for the Department of Environmental Protection, Ian Michaels.


“The fact is that the source of the water is in the Catskills, so even the biggest tsunami couldn’t affect the source of the water, but it could affect the distribution system,” Mr. Michaels said.


Also important is the communication of the potency of an impending threat. People are more likely to respond if a warning comes from neighbors or family members, experts said.


A recent survey by Columbia University found that the third most trusted source, after fire and police officials, was neighbors, according to the coordinator for Citizens for NYC, a nonprofit organization that works with neighborhood civic groups. News reports of family members warning their loved ones to seek higher ground immediately before the tsunami proves that people are more likely to respond to a threat if it comes from a source they trust, Richard Brouillette said.


That realization has led to a shift in some experts’ approach toward emergency preparedness.


“The more we can involve people in the process, the more effective we can be,” Mr. Brouillette said. “Before 9/11 the government thought people would panic. After 9/11 people are less likely to panic and more likely to help.”


There are 12,000 neighborhood groups in the city. The Office of Emergency Management has begun to train each community board as part of its CERT – for community emergency-response readiness teams – program.


There is also, of course, a certain bravado that flares up during even the worst disaster, such as hurricanes, especially for coastal residents in such places as Long Island and the Rockaways.


“The biggest challenge from the perspective of neighborhood preparedness is behavior change,” Mr. Brouillette said. “People in Long Island get drinks and go out to watch the hurricane. People aren’t thinking about leaving, and it turns into this weird social thing. Getting people to evacuate, the issue is trust.”


Agencies Accepting Donations and Relief Support


ACTION AGAINST HUNGER


247 West 37th Street, Suite 1201 New York, N.Y. 10018 212-967-7800 ext. 108 www.actionagainsthunger.com


AMERICAN JEWISH WORLD SERVICE


45 West 36th Street, 10th Floor New York, N.Y. 10018 800-889-7146 www.ajws.org


AMERICAN JEWISH JOINT DISTRIBUTION COMMITTEE


South Asia Tsunami Relief Box 321 847A Second Avenue New York, N.Y. 10017 212-687-6200 ext. 851 www.jdc.org


U.S. FUND FOR UNICEF


333 East 38th Street New York, N.Y. 10016 800-FOR-KIDS www.unicefusa.org


ADRA INTERNATIONAL 9-11 FUND


12501 Old Columbus Pike Silver Spring, M.D. 20904 800-424-2372 www.adra.org


AMERICAN FRIENDS SERVICE COMMITTEE (AFSC CRISIS FUND)


1501 Cherry Street Philadelphia, P.A. 215-241-7000 www.afsc.org


AMERICAN RED CROSS INTERNATIONAL RESPONSE FUND


P.O. Box 37243 Washington, D.C. 20013 800-HELP-NOW www.redcross.org


CARE USA


151 Ellis Street, NE Atlanta, G.A. 30303-2440 404-681-2552 800-521-CARE www.careusa.org


CATHOLIC RELIEF SERVICES


P.O. Box 17090 Baltimore, M.D. 21203-7090 800-736-3467 www.catholicrelief.org


CHRISTIAN CHILDREN’S FUND


2851 Emerywood Parkway Richmond, V.A. 23289-3725 800-776-6767 www.christianchildrensfund.org


CHURCH WORLD SERVICE


P.O. Box 968 Elkhart, I.N. 46515 800-297-1516 www.churchworldservice.org


DIRECT RELIEF INTERNATIONAL


27 South La Patera Lane Santa Barbara, C.A. 93117 805-964-4767 www.directrelief.org


DOCTORS WITHOUT BORDERS/ MEDECINS SANS FRONTIERES


P.O. Box 1856 Merrifield, V.A. 22116-8056 888-392-0392 www.doctorswithoutborders.org


INTERNATIONAL MEDICAL CORPS EARTHQUAKE/TSUNAMI RELIEF


1919 Santa Monica Boulevard, Suite 300 Santa Monica, C.A. 90404 800-481-4462 www.imcworldwide.org


INTERNATIONAL FEDERATION OF RED CROSS AND RED CRESCENT SOCIETIES


P.O. Box 372 CH-1211 Geneva 19 Switzerland 41-22-730-4222 www.ifrc.org


ISLAMIC RELIEF USA SOUTHEAST ASIA EARTHQUAKE EMERGENCY


P.O. Box 6098 Burbank, C.A. 91510 888-479-4968 www.irw.org/asiaquak


LUTHERAN WORLD RELIEF


P.O. Box 17061 Baltimore, M.D. 21298-9832 800-597-5972 www.lwr.org


MAP INTERNATIONAL


2200 Glynco Parkway P.O. Box 215000 Brunswick, G.A. 3121-5000 800-225-8550 www.map.org


MERCY CORPS


Southeast Asia Earthquake Response Dept. W P.O. Box 2669 Portland, O.R. 97208 800-852-2100 www.mercycorps.org


MIDDLE EAST CRISIS RESPONSE


P.O. Box 630225 Baltimore, M.D. 21263-0225 877-803-4622 www.iocc.org


OPERATION USA


8320 Melrose Avenue, Suite 200 Los Angeles, C.A. 90069 800-678-7255 www.opusa.org


OXFAM AMERICA ASIA EARTHQUAKE FUND


P.O. Box 1211 Albert Lea, M.N. 56007-1211 800-77-OXFAM www.oxfamamerica.org


SAVE THE CHILDREN


54 Wilton Road Westport, C.T. 06880 800-728-3843 www.savethechildren.org


WORLD CONCERN


19303 Fremont Avenue N Seattle, W.A. 98133 800-755-5022 www.worldconcern.org


WORLD VISION


P.O. Box 70288 Tacoma, W.A. 98481-0288 888-56-CHILD www.worldvision.org


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