ALBANY – Upstate New York was hit with a bad-news trifecta recently – a trio of releases that portray a region losing people, losing jobs, and losing clout.

A Federal Reserve Bank of New York report that found a steady shift of jobs and people from the region was sandwiched between two sets of census numbers with some gloomy implications. The first set of figures estimated sluggish growth or losses around much of the state; the second predicted New York will be usurped by Florida as the third most populous state by 2011.

The statistics weren’t surprising. The region has been struggling to retain people for decades. But they spotlighted a question public officials in New York have long wrestled with: What, if anything, can be done to keep more people in upstate New York?

Analysts interviewed this past week offered a list of policy prescriptions, from new tax cuts to attracting more immigrants. But they cautioned that population retention is a complicated issue without easy answers or total solutions.

“I honestly don’t think we’re going to turn things around and be larger than Florida in 20 years,” said an associate professor of city and regional planning at Cornell University, Rolf Pendall. “I think that the processes are much bigger than that.”

The problem isn’t that New York is shrinking, it’s that it’s growing at a snail’s pace compared to boom areas in the South and West. That’s why Florida is expected to overtake New York in six years – a blow to the Empire State’s esteem that has real implications because congressional seats are allocated based on relative population. If census projections hold, New York’s 29-member House delegation could shrink to 23 by 2030.

There are bright spots around the state, particularly the New York City region and the Hudson Valley. But the larger upstate region is also dealing with the problem of younger adults – a vital cog in a vibrant economy – leaving in droves.

In one sense, the region is being pulled along by the same demographic forces plaguing other Northeast areas. More people are choosing to live in warmer climates. The census projects single-digit growth not only for New York from 2000 to 2030, but also for nearby Connecticut, Pennsylvania, and Ohio.

Still, analysts believe government policy can have some affect on population trends. A common belief is that thriving economies solve the problems of attracting and retaining people. Differences come over how best to make upstate thrive.

Some economists and business groups blame the state’s tax structure for helping chase jobs, and thus people, to other states with lower taxes. Robert Ward of the state Business Council argues that tax cuts fueled job creation in the 1990s and another round would have the same effect now.

“We need to welcome jobs instead of driving them away,” Mr. Ward said.

Frank Mauro, of the union-backed Fiscal Policy Institute, argued against such a link between taxes and jobs, saying bustling New York City collects more in corporate income taxes than the state. He called for restoring so-called revenue-sharing aid to cities, which was dramatically cut in the early 1990s. More aid would free the cities from the cycle of tax hikes and service cuts that drive people away, he said.