“I think the governor runs and wins and becomes the mayor,” New York’s former governor, David Paterson, tells The New York Sun of his successor in Albany, Andrew Cuomo.

This sense of inevitability about Governor Cuomo running — and winning — this year’s mayoral race is hanging over New York City like a cloud or thunderstorm, depending on who’s speaking. Mr. Cuomo has yet to enter the race, though he is reportedly consulting with family members this week and an announcement is expected in the coming days.

Every major poll shows Mr. Cuomo winning the Democratic primary in June. In a city where Democrats outnumber Republicans by more than two-to-one — and the only candidate the Republicans are putting forward is Guardian Angels founder Curtis Sliwa, who lost the last mayoral election with only 28 percent of the vote — a Democrat nominee Cuomo would likely prevail in November.

What should New Yorkers expect from a Cuomo-for-Mayor campaign? The New York Sun asked political strategists, New York government officials, and business leaders what they think are Mr. Cuomo’s strengths and weaknesses heading into the race.

Effective Leader

“You don’t have to like the guy, but he knows how to run things,” a Democratic strategist, Hank Sheinkopf, tells the Sun. “11 on time budgets, getting the Second Avenue subway opened, building two airports. How would you compare that to anyone else running for office right now?”

The “you don’t have to like him” caveat precedes most responses about Mr. Cuomo’s strengths. The former Empire State governor is pitching himself as a moderate centrist manager who can shepherd the city out of crisis.

Negative views of Mr. Cuomo, who resigned from the governorship over sexual misconduct allegations in 2021, are high. Nearly 44 percent of potential voters say Mr. Cuomo’s history of scandals and handling of nursing home deaths during Covid make him unfit for office, according to a Gotham Polling & Analytics survey released Friday.

Positive views of Mr. Cuomo, though, prevail, with 20 percent of potential voters saying their top impression of the former governor is that “he’s a tough leader who knows how to get big things done.” Another 34.5 percent say he handled crises well and built large infrastructure projects.

“If it weren’t for Cuomo we wouldn’t have the new bridge,” a former Democratic New York state senator, David Carlucci, tells the Sun of the Tappan Zee Bridge. “He gets a lot of flak for being a crass, calculating politician by some, but I think in an environment where things are going crazy coming out of Washington, you need someone who knows how to use the levers of government, how to pull those strings to affect change, to help people.”

Mr. Paterson also praises Mr. Cuomo for his managerial competence. “He was the greatest administrator I ever met,” he tells the Sun. “His productivity is his greatest strength.”

Moderate

If Mr. Cuomo jumps in the race, he would face a field of at least eight other Democrats. Yet aside from Mr. Adams, Mr. Cuomo is the only Democrat vying for the center lane. This works to his advantage, as the progressive vote will split among the field.

The other top candidates are City Comptroller Brad Lander and a Democratic Socialists of America candidate, Zohran Mamdani, who is promising free childcare, free buses, a rent freeze on subsidized apartments, and city-owned grocery stores. Mr. Cuomo is pitching himself to black, working class, and Jewish voters, while Mr. Mamdani protests with the “Free Palestine” crowd. Their bases don’t overlap.

“The leftwing of the party is obviously a weak spot for him,” Mr. Carlucci says of Mr. Cuomo. “Cuomo will have this real moderate center lane to himself, and that could be a real window or door opening for his pathway to Gracie Mansion.”

Crime and public safety are the number one issues for voters, followed by housing costs and the economy. Several recent high-profile subway crimes have put a spotlight on public safety. There were 11 subway murders in 2024, compared to zero in 2017. Felony assaults are up 40 percent from 2019. Subway fare evasion and retail theft are rampant.

Mr. Lander is now moving to the center on policing, rejecting his prior “defund the police” stance for a promise to hire more cops and retain the current no-nonsense police commissioner, Jessica Tisch. “I think of him as having no principles, but in this case that might be good,” a professor at John Jay College of Criminal Justice, Peter Moskos, tells the Sun of Mr. Lander.

Mr. Cuomo, too, will have to answer for signing bail reform legislation as governor. Mr. Adams is already attacking him for it, saying recidivism is the largest driver of crime in the city. Yet Mr. Cuomo also put 500 additional cops on the subway in 2019, against the objection of progressives like Congresswoman Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez. New Yorkers look back with fondness at the pre-pandemic low-crime heyday when Mr. Cuomo was governor.

“The city needs safety. They need law and order. And I think Andrew Cuomo is the first one to say that he wants more police and he wants stricter rules,” a Manhattan real estate executive and founder of Empire State Properties, Suzanne Miller, tells the Sun. “Real estate people loved him.”

Ms. Miller calls herself a centrist and is not registered with either party, so she can’t vote in the primary. She says the three candidates she’d consider voting for in November are the incumbent mayor, Eric Adams, Mr. Cuomo, or Mr. Sliwa.

Mr. Cuomo’s appeal across parties could help him in the general election, but he has to win the primary first. Turnout in the last mayoral primary was only 23 percent. “The other enemy he faces is ranked choice voting,” Mr. Sheinkopf says. With Mr. Cuomo’s high negatives, he may have trouble getting enough second choice votes.

“He’s a moderate and it may seem as if that’s in fashion in New York, moving to the right even in the last presidential election with issues around security and immigration, going from at first compassion to now capacity,” a Republican strategist, Matthew Bartlett, tells the Sun.

A self-described moderate Democrat, Mr. Moskos says he’d “hold my nose reluctantly” and vote for Mr. Cuomo if it were between him and a far-left progressive. “He’s got so much baggage,” he says. “Sons of politicians are never as good as their fathers.”

Tough Guy or Bully?

When a Democratic Congressman from the Bronx, Ritchie Torres, endorsed Mr. Cuomo for mayor this week, he told the New York Post, “We don’t need a Mr. Nice Guy. We need a Mr. Tough Guy.”

Ms. Miller agrees. “The city needs a tough guy,” she tells the Sun. “Regardless of Andrew Cuomo’s past allegations, this city needs somebody that is smart and knows their way around and where the bodies are buried.”

“He’s a strong guy. New Yorkers like strong guys,” a Democratic strategist, Michael Hardaway tells the Sun. “We vote for who’s going to be effective and proficient and I think that’s why you see Cuomo’s numbers being where they are.”

The tough guy image, though, is often described in a less flattering way — “bully.” Mr. Cuomo has made enemies in his decades-long political career. A handful of people said they wouldn’t comment publicly about Mr. Cuomo because he’s known to hold grudges.

The state’s attorney general, Letitia James, wrote the 168-page report on sexual misconduct allegations against Mr. Cuomo that forced him to resign. Ms. James is now reportedly trying to recruit City Council Speaker Adrienne Adams to run for mayor. Ms. Adams filed paperwork with New York City’s Campaign Finance Board on Wednesday, a first step in launching a campaign.

Ms. Adams could syphon support from black voters away from Mr. Cuomo. Blacks make up about a third of the Democratic primary electorate.

“It’s all about stopping Cuomo,” Mr. Sheinkopf says. “That he’s Andrew Cuomo is his biggest liability. He has a lot of political enemies.”

Ms. James denies she’s working to recruit Ms. Adams. “Adams is considering running for the Office of the Mayor of the City of New York, and Tish James is focused on her work as the Attorney General of State of New York,” she tells the Sun. When asked whether she is worried about a Cuomo political comeback, Ms. James said, “I’m a person of faith, and faith and fear cannot share the same space. Next question.”

“If you want to make an omelet, you got to crack some eggs. And unfortunately, that’s the reality of governing if you want to get things done,” Mr. Carlucci says. “Andrew Cuomo is guilty of that, and you’re going to upset people along the way.”  

Mr. Cuomo’s bully image, though, might appeal to some Democrats who worry that the current mayor is too beholden to President Trump. Many Democrats want a strongman foil to the president, and they remember the image of Mr. Cuomo in his bomber jacket at daily press hearings during Covid, playing that role. 

Nursing Home Deaths

If New Yorkers are looking for a scandal-free candidate in the wake of Mr. Adams’ legal troubles and alleged quid pro-quo with Mr. Trump, Mr. Cuomo is not the guy.

The biggest stain on his tenure as governor is his handling of nursing home patients during Covid and his sustained effort to hide the true number — as high as 9,000 — who died. Mr. Cuomo issued an executive order in the early days of the pandemic that prevented nursing homes from turning away Covid-positive patients. The results were devastating.

The families of those who lost loved ones to Mr. Cuomo’s nursing home policy are not going to stay silent. “We’ll be there every step of the way to remind New Yorkers that his decisions have killed in the past, and this time it was our loved ones — next time it could be them,” an assistant director at Voices for Seniors, Tracey Alvino, who lost her father to Covid contracted in a nursing home rehabilitation center, tells the Sun.

“Our loved ones didn’t stand a chance and now here he is standing before us about to ask for another chance to lead New York. We’ve seen what his leadership has done,” Ms. Alvino says. “His leadership decisions were reckless and they killed people.”

Ms. Alvino says mayoral candidates “from both sides of the aisle” have contacted her organization, though they’ve decided not to endorse a candidate. Fox News reporter Janice Dean lost her in-laws to Covid contracted in a nursing home. She has a large platform and will likely speak out if Mr. Cuomo runs.  

“This one is very tough to justify,” Mr. Bartlett says of Mr. Cuomo’s actions. “The short answer is people died.”

As the governor’s national star rose with his daily Covid briefings, he scored a $5 million book deal. New York’s highest court ruled this month that an ethics commission investigation into his book deal can proceed.

“With the nursing home scandal, I think that people — if they could get a clear shot at him — would take it,” Mr. Paterson says.

Mr. Paterson says that one of Mr. Cuomo’s biggest liabilities is that “he’s not particularly self-aware when it comes to mistakes he might make.” He suggests Mr. Cuomo should apologize to the families he hurt.

Ms. Alvino says Mr. Cuomo was given plenty of opportunities to apologize when he testified before Congress. She was sitting right behind him.

“After wasting millions of taxpayer dollars with federal and state investigations that found no evidence of wrongdoing, this MAGA Congressional Committee came up short on verifying the Big Lie they’ve been peddling for years: Its report does not conclude there was any causality between the March 25th DOH guidance and deaths in nursing homes,” Mr. Cuomo’s spokesperson, Richard Azzopardi, said in a statement in September after the hearing.

Sexual Misconduct Scandal

Mr. Cuomo resigned from the governorship in 2021 after 13 women accused him of sexual misconduct. Since then, all the lawsuits against the former governor have been dropped, but the scar of the allegations will no doubt haunt his campaign.

Ms. Alvino says she is in touch with some of Mr. Cuomo’s accusers. “The negative ads are going to be pretty vicious, but unless they’re smart they won’t work,” Mr. Sheinkopf says.

Mr. Paterson is critical of Mr. Cuomo’s handling of these cases, including the subpoenaing of his accusers’ gynecological records. “Some of the women have dropped their cases because of the intensity of the investigation,” he says. Earlier he described Mr. Cuomo’s sexual misconduct scandal as, “It wasn’t like Clarence Thomas and Anita Hill. It was like Clarence Thomas and Anita Hill and four other identical twins.”

“Other than that, he’s a beautiful guy,” Mr. Paterson says, laughing. “No, other than that he could really be a tremendous leader.”