As a British political statement for 2024, it rivals the calling of the election date and, following thereon, the declaration of which party will form the next UK government. It is, of course, Nigel Farage’s announcement of his own political future.

“I have thought long and hard as to whether I should stand in the upcoming general election,” Mr. Farage admitted Thursday morning. “As honorary president of Reform UK, I am fully supportive of Richard Tice’s leadership and urge voters to put their trust in him.”

Then, he let drop what all were waiting for with bated breath: “I will do my bit to help in the campaign, but it is not the right time for me to go any further than that.”

Instead, Mr. Farage is heading to America.

“Important though the general election is, the contest in the United States of America on November 5 has huge global significance,” he reasoned, since “a strong America as a close ally is vital for our peace and security.”

Therefore, Mr. Farage declared, “I intend to help with the grassroots campaign in the USA in any way that I can.”

And in what some may consider a snub, the hero of Brexit summed up his general impression of this UK electoral season: “The choice between Labour and the Conservatives is uninspiring, and only Reform have the radical agenda that is needed to end decline in this country.”

Then why not fight alongside Reform to end the decline? Mr. Farage thinks that the snap election was called to put him on the backfoot, with a mere six weeks to find a seat to contest and then campaign. An impossible timetable, he must reckon.

Reform insiders also believe that despite official statistics that net migration numbers for 2023 are down 10 percent from 2022, the “small boat crisis” of illegal immigration in the English Channel will only worsen this year. A July election gets the Conservative Government ahead of the bad news to come.

Already, Conservatives are calling foul. One prominent Boris Johnson supporter, Nadine Dorries, is questioning Mr. Farage’s national character. 

“You have to question the patriotism in a man who has always claimed above all else to be a patriot when he puts another country before his own,” Ms. Dorries sneered. She thinks little of Mr. Farage for “not standing in the general election because he thinks the elections in the US are more relevant.”

Doubtless, she hopes UK voters will think equally ill for Mr. Farage and the party he co-founded. As for Reform itself, rank-and-file members will regret that their Brexit paladin will not be among their active band of brothers on the hustings.

Party leader Richard Tice may be of mixed minds himself. No mean campaigner in his own right, he may come to fear comparisons with Farage’s “rizz.” Nevertheless, at a news conference Mr. Tice said that he was “delighted” that his predecessor is “able to help and campaign with us.

“I’m thrilled about it,” Mr. Tice continued, paying homage to the former Reform chief. “He’ll be pushing the same message and be helping us get seats elected.”

Ultimately, the question remains: Is there method to Nigel Farage’s madness, of sitting out a pivotal UK election? If Labour forms the next government, what happens to those sprouts of Brexit dividends just waiting to fully blossom?

Is it worth jeopardizing a return to the shadow of EU regulatory diktat, of “open borders” and undisguised tax-and-spend policy, to lend a hand to Mr. Trump’s presidential run? How much pull does “Nige” have among the American grass roots, anyway? Has the former President made him an offer too good to refuse?

Conversely, consider an alternative scenario to the one Mr. Farage offers. 

If the Conservatives are going down to devastating defeat, and if Reform plays a role in their demise by draining away votes without directly benefiting electorally from the Tories’ fall from office, does Mr. Farage really want to have his fingerprints on the murder weapon?

Would it not be better to give Reform an assist, allow for the clearing of Conservative MPs, and to start fresh, post-election, on building a true Brexit alliance among the Reform and Conservative remnant?

Maybe Nigel Farage considers that in the long run, he needs friends in high places to mount the sort of Brexit alliance of conservative-minded politicians on either side of the North Atlantic. 

Maybe he figures that any road to 10 Downing Street must pass through 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue — and placing his friend Donald Trump back in the White House.

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