Nikki Haley Voters Turning Out for Her in Primaries, as Trump Wins 78 Percent in Indiana — Where He’s Unopposed

With both Governor Haley’s now-defunct campaign and President Biden’s campaign touting the results of Tuesday’s Indiana primary, future GOP nominating contests may offer further embarrassments for President Trump in what should be a coast to victory in the GOP primary.On Tuesday, 78 percent of Republicans voted to nominate Mr. Trump as the party’s pick for the presidential race in 2024. While 78 percent is a resounding victory in most elections, in Tuesday’s Indiana primary, it’s less impressive considering that Mr. Trump is running unopposed. Ms. Haley received more than 100,000 votes — about 22 percent of the vote — in the Indiana Republican primary, even though she dropped out of the race in early March.Ms. Haley’s campaign, which has been conspicuously active on social media even after she dropped out, touted the results in a post, saying, “Thank you, Indiana” and noting she received “significant voter share in the Indiana suburbs.” Former staffers for the Haley campaign, like the campaign manager, Betsy Ankney, also remarked on the results, with Ms. Ankney posting: “I remember people claiming that Nikki wouldn’t even be on the ballot in Indiana.”The Biden campaign reacted similarly, posting a montage of voters who once supported Ms. Haley indicating that they plan to vote for Mr. Biden, with one voter saying, “I can’t associate myself with the Republican Party under Donald Trump.”Mr. Trump, who is often quick to celebrate a victory, has been so far silent on the primary results, though he has been active on Truth Social since the results came in. He may, though, get the chance to weigh in on future results similar to those in Indiana, despite the limited number of Republican nominating competitions left on the calendar.The next primaries will be held on May 15 in Maryland, Nebraska, and West Virginia. While there’s been no primary polling in Nebraska and West Virginia, anti-Trump Republican primary voters could come out in force in Maryland. A survey from early April by OpinionWorks, the Baltimore Sun, and the University of Baltimore found that Ms. Haley enjoyed 18 percent support in the state compared to Mr. Trump’s 74 percent.A week after the Maryland primary, Republicans in Kentucky and Oregon will go to the polls and, though there’s been no data out of Oregon of late, a Morning Consult survey showed significant support for Ms. Haley, 16 percent, in early February.The final set of presidential primaries set to be held on June 4 includes Montana, New Jersey, New Mexico, and South Dakota. While Ms. Haley’s campaign never got a foothold in Montana, and there’s been no data out of New Mexico, Ms. Haley could garner support in the other states.A New Jersey Morning Consult survey from early February found that Mr. Trump enjoyed 82 percent support to Ms. Haley’s 17 percent. A Victory Insights survey of South Dakota Republicans found Mr. Trump enjoyed just 52 percent support earlier this year. It was the only survey of the state this year, and it’s not clear how voter’s opinions there have changed since it was conducted in early January.While there might be a few more rounds of unfavorable headlines for Mr. Trump’s campaign left in the primaries, the bigger question is how Ms. Haley’s supporters will vote in November.The problem with 2024’s uncompetitive primaries is that they have left analysts with little data to parse, including on the topic of how Ms. Haley’s supporters are planning to vote in the general election.Exit polling from Ohio found that nearly half of Ms. Haley’s supporters, 47 percent, said they’d back Mr. Biden and another 32 percent said they wouldn’t vote in the presidential election.The exit polls found that a full 18 percent of Republican primary voters said they wouldn’t support Mr. Trump if he were the nominee, with 10 percent saying they’d back Mr. Biden and 8 percent saying they’d sit out the election.While that’s significantly higher than the 6 percent of Republicans who backed Mr. Biden in 2020, it’s only one state, and, given that there was little exit polling conducted this year, it’s not clear how it compares to other states.There are also comparisons to be drawn between the continued support for Ms. Haley and the “uncommitted” vote in the Democratic primaries. The “uncommitted” vote, largely organized to protest Mr. Biden’s policies in the Middle East, reached its apex in Minnesota, where 19 percent of Democratic primary voters voted “uncommitted” in protest against Mr. Biden.Similar to the situation with Ms. Haley’s supporters, it’s unclear how most “uncommitted” voters plan to vote in November, as there hasn’t been the usual robust exit polling to shine light on this subsection of Democrats.

Nikki Haley Voters Turning Out for Her in Primaries, as Trump Wins 78 Percent in Indiana — Where He’s Unopposed

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