North Korea, Defying White House Warning, Launches a Spy Satellite, Posing a Dilemma for Seoul and Washington

North Korea, putting a spy satellite into orbit on its third attempt, confronts Seoul and Washington with a problem: Having warned North Korea many times of dire consequences, what if anything can they do to live up to their threats?As the satellite was confirmed spinning around the earth, taking pictures of the American base on Guam, according to the North’s state TV, the Americans and South Koreans responded with gestures that indicated their frustration over the North’s undoubted achievement. After greeting North Korea’s success in sending the satellite into space with the usual charges of a “provocation,” Seoul suspended an agreement reached with the North more than five years ago to stop military surveillance flights on either side of the Demilitarized Zone between the two Koreas.South Korea’s Prime Minister, Han Duck Soo, said the launch showed that North Korea “has no will” to observe the terms of the agreement that was “designed to reduce military tension on the Korean peninsula and build trust.”Suspension of the agreement, however, had little meaning since the South’s conservative president, Yoon Suk-yeol, had been talking about doing away with it ever since taking over from his liberal predecessor, Moon Jae-in, in May 2022. The launch of the satellite provided the perfect pretext for Mr. Yoon to do what he wanted to do anyway. The South has accused the North of numerous violations while American and South Korean military officers complained they could not fly close enough to the line to see what the North Koreans were up to.At the same time, the North’s success gave the impression of much closer cooperation between North Korea and Russia since North Korea’s leader, Kim Jong-un, met President Putin at the Vostochny cosmodrome near the Amur River in September at the outset of his six-day trip to Russian bases in the region.Experts doubted if Russia had suddenly provided new technology after two previous failures, but Russians were presumably on hand at the Sohae facility in northwestern North Korea, near the Chinese border to offer advice and applaud the launch in accordance with the broad agreement reached between Mr. Kim and Mr. Putin.“North Korea is receiving not just food and fuel assistance but also military satellite technology,” said a long-time Korea analyst, Victor Cha, at the Center for Strategic and International Studies at Washington. Indeed, he said, the Russians may be providing “other advanced technology such as nuclear-powered submarines and ballistic missiles.”CSIS has reported what it called “an unprecedented number of arms transfers and other trade activities” between Russia and North Korea since the meeting between Mr. Kim and Mr. Putiin.Quite aside from suspension of the North-South agreement, the launch of the satellite ratcheted up tensions in other ways. The White House National Security Council warned that a launch “risks destabilizing the situation in the region.” The underlying fear is that the technology used for the launch could also be used to fire an intercontinental ballistic missile capable of reaching targets in North America.Just two days ago South Korea’s joint chiefs, in a rhetorical exercise, declared, “We sternly warn North Korea to … immediately suspend the current preparations to launch a military spy satellite.” If the North went ahead anyway, said the statement, “our military will take necessary measures to guarantee the lives and safety of the people.”It was the joint chiefs that confirmed the satellite was in orbit — though still not certain if it was operating as well as North Korea claimed. Mr. Kim was on hand for the launch of the Chollims-1 rocket that put the Malivyabnt-1 satellite into orbit.By no coincidence, the aircraft carrier USS Carl Vinson docked at the port of Busan — the third visit by a nuclear carrier this year. South Korea’s navy said the visit was intended “to increase the regular visibility of U.S. strategic assets” — meaning it buttressed Washington’s commitment to defend the South against the North.

North Korea, Defying White House Warning, Launches a Spy Satellite, Posing a Dilemma for Seoul and Washington

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