Odds of a Skyscraper-Sized Asteroid Hitting the Moon Are Increasing, and Scientists Are All for It

The odds of an asteroid recently discovered by scientists hitting the Moon are increasing, and the prospect has astronomers excited instead of alarmed.NASA named the near-Earth asteroid revolving around the Sun “2024 YR4” after discovering it in December 2024. It was first feared that the asteroid could hit Earth and devastate an entire city when it arrives in 2032.In February, NASA set the chances of it hitting Earth at the highest probability it ever recorded for an object its size or larger. While those odds have since dropped to near zero, the likelihood that it will strike the Moon have doubled. That still makes it unlikely, but not out of the realm of possibility.Using new infrared observations from the James Webb Space Telescope, NASA now estimates the asteroid to be between 174 and 220 feet in length — or about the size of a ten-story building.This week, experts at NASA’s Center for Near Earth Object Studies at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory updated 2024 YR4’s chance of impacting the Moon to 3.8 percent, up from 1.7 percent in late February.They are expected to release another update on the asteroid in late April or early May after more observations.Some astronomers are rooting for a Moon hit and say we shouldn’t be scared. It would give them a chance to watch the impact and study the results.“We’ve got our fingers crossed for a moon impact,” Alan Fitzsimmons at Queens’s University Belfast told New Scientist. “It would have no effect on Earth but would allow us to study the formation of a lunar crater by a known asteroid for the first time.”Scientists say that if the asteroid does end up hitting the Moon, they estimate that it could create a crater about a kilometer across, but say it wouldn’t alter its orbit and would have little impact on Earth.An operations engineer with the Catalina Sky Survey at the University of Arizona, David Rankin, agreed that if there is a Moon hit, it wouldn’t be of much concern to residents of Earth.“There is the possibility this would eject some material back out that could hit the Earth,” Mr. Rankin said to New Scientist in a separate report, “but I highly doubt it would cause any major threat.”The moon hit would also create a light show that amateur Moon-gazers could see with backyard telescopes.Since being discovered, 2024 YR4 has moved away from Earth and its next close approach won’t be until December 2028.

Odds of a Skyscraper-Sized Asteroid Hitting the Moon Are Increasing, and Scientists Are All for It

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