It could have been otherwise: the unilateral withdrawal from Gaza should have, and could have, ushered in a period of reconciliation between Israel and the future Palestinian state: Had the various Palestinian armed units held their fire, had they allowed the new border to calm down and enabled trade, aid and the passage of workers to pass peacefully through, Israeli public opinion, as well as the new Israeli government would have moved into the second phase which would consist of unilateral withdrawal from the major chunk of the West Bank. The end of the Israeli occupation of Palestinian territories would have been in sight and a glimmer of hope for peace and reconciliation would have shined at the end of tunnel.

But things did not work out this way. This wishful dream was blown up and away on the morrow of the withdrawal from Gaza by the constant shelling of Sderot and kibbutzim inside southern Israel and by last week’s attack on an Israeli army post and the kidnapping of an Israeli soldier. This has sent an unequivocal message to all Israelis: the occupation is not the main issue; the issue is the rejection of Israel’s very existence. The shelling and attack forced Labor’s Minister of Defense, the dovish Amir Peretz, to wave a big stick and, finally, when all else failed, to order the incursion on Gaza — from which Israel withdrew less than a year ago — and the resort to decisive military action unless the kidnapped soldier is returned and the shelling stopped. Indeed, politically, the shelling hit mainly Israeli moderates and leftists; for years, they (including this author) preached for a trade-off of territories against peace; courageously they swam against the current and fought the ideas of a greater, annexationist Israel. Now, they have to face the realities of a rejectionist Palestinian government as well as a constant proof that withdrawal only exacerbates Israel’s security situation.

Abu Mazen is the last hope of Israeli peace-seekers. But even this hope is being shattered by his inability to stop the shelling, to have the kidnapped soldier released and to disarm the terrorists. Furthermore, his “moderate” document, the so-called prisoners’ petition (i.e., the petition of Palestinian prisoners in Israeli jails) incorporates extremist elements: no Jewish party in the Knesset, including the Left, can even entertain the idea of the Right of Return of the descendants of the 1948 refugees included in this petition and which, in effect, means that the Jews would become a minority in the only state that is theirs.

These days, Israelis live in an ambivalent mood: on one hand, terrorist attacks have gone down in number and some sort of truce is partially observed by the Hamas; the economy is booming; tourism is back — filling hotels all over the country. Anyone who visits Tel Aviv will be impressed by the crowds strolling the streets, by the packed cinemas, cafes, and concert halls and by the fact that all this is happening some 50 miles north of the shelling and fighting in the Negev. But over all of Israel looms a clear and present danger; over the festivities and rising exports hangs a cloud threatening Israel’s security. The chances for any sort of settlement with the Palestinians recede into the horizon of pious wishes, and the specter of a nuclear Iran run by a Nazi ruler, threatening to wipe Israel off the map, have brought back memories of 1948, when the fledgling state had to face the onslaught of well-equipped invading Arab armies.

There are, of course, differences: in 1948 Israel was powerless — without an equipped army, air force or navy. Nowadays, Israel has powerful armed forces which, if necessary, will inflict heavy punishment on those who attack it. On the other hand, in 1948, the newly emerged state enjoyed the support of public opinion in the West; nowadays “bash Israel” hysteria, and boycotts and divestments, have become routine. There is one link which is common to 1948 and today’s Israel; the Jewish state is still the one and only country whose very survival is at stake and it is still the task of civilized people everywhere to ensure that this island of democracy in the Middle East, this homeland of the Jews, be maintained and supported.

Mr. Rubinstein is president of the Interdisciplinary Center in Herzliya, Israel.