Battling Losses

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The New York Sun

Even as political shockwaves reverberate across New England from the upheaval in the presidential campaign of Senator McCain, his most loyal supporters hope a renewed commitment to the kind of folksy retail political events that helped him win New Hampshire in 2000 will keep his battered candidacy alive.

Although Mr. McCain weathered another blow yesterday — the loss of three press staffers — New Hampshire activists are eager to see him take on a stripped down, bare-knuckles posture. New Hampshire, they pointed out, is still the “Retail Politics State” when it comes to presidential contests, a fact that the campaign seemed to have lost sight of when Mr. McCain announced his candidacy in Portsmouth only three months ago.

Back then, an aloof sound technician quarreled with television reporters about the size of massive stage speakers, which obstructed cameras from capturing a good shot of the Arizona senator, a symbol that suggested how stylistically different the 2007 Mr. McCain is from his previous self. Then, he had lots of money to spend on such items as lavish sound systems. Today, the cash strapped campaign of Mr. McCain will by necessity return to the informal style that New Hampshire voters have traditionally favored.

“Here in New Hampshire, coming out of the Summer, whether or not there had been a change at the top or not, it was going to be necessary for Senator McCain to participate in the retail politics that are necessary to win New Hampshire one way or another,” a vice chairman of Mr. McCain’s campaign in the state, John Lyons, said. “We expect through his continued personal campaigning here that he’s going to win New Hampshire.”

Winning New Hampshire in 2008 is as important as ever, or perhaps even more so than in prior election cycles. The Iowa caucuses and New Hampshire primary could determine which candidate has momentum going into February 5, the Tuesday when at least 11 states will vote for the Republican nominee.

Mr. McCain’s backers in New Hampshire are pinning their hopes ironically on what happened with another Vietnam veteran in the Senate, John Kerry, who beat a primary challenge from Howard Dean of Vermont after Mr. Kerry fired his campaign manager and a number of staffers during the 2004 election cycle. They point out that the upheaval in Mr. Kerry’s camp took place in November, four months later in the cycle than now, and well after the leisurely New England summer where voters are typically less attentive to the details of politics.

His supporters are correct in pointing to Mr. Kerry’s comeback, contrary to conventional wisdom, that it is possible for a front-runner to rescue himself, particularly in New Hampshire. But several important differences existed between Mr. Kerry in 2003 and Mr. McCain in 2007, the most important of which involves money. Mr. Kerry took personal loans of more than $7 million to keep his campaign afloat. Even in New Hampshire where personal contact counts for a lot, money still matters.

While the top rung of grassroots supporters in New Hampshire appear to be behind the senator still, elsewhere in the campaign uncertainty prevails. “We’re waiting for the dust to settle,” one supporter of Mr. McCain says. “The problem with recapturing the McCain magic in 2000 is that it wasn’t enough to win in 2000. To win you need TV advertisements, not just a ground game.”

An open question also exists over where support for Mr. McCain will go should his campaign continue to falter. One thought is that the Mayor Giuliani will be the beneficiary since his more moderate political posture is somewhat similar to Mr. McCain’s. Another posits that Senator Thompson will scoop up some of Mr. McCain’s backing. The sheriff of Carroll County, N.H., Scott Carr, pulled his support from Mr. McCain two months ago over the immigration issue. Mr. Carr told this columnist yesterday that he was waiting to see whether Mr. Thompson enters the race.

Going forward, Mr. McCain’s renewed commitment to New Hampshire suggests a candidate betting on a primary-by-primary strategy, one Governor Romney of neighboring Massachusetts has been following all along. “If anything it makes the stakes higher here. It validates what we’ve been saying all along is that the early states matter,” a New Hampshire-based senior adviser to Mr. Romney’s campaign, Tom Rath, says.

As sunbathers flock to Hampton Beach and boaters frolic in Lake Winnipesaukee, Mr. McCain can take some solace in the fact that candidates still run for the nomination primary-by-primary, not in a national referendum, which seems to undercut Messrs. Giuliani and Thompson.

Today’s expedited campaign schedule, however, means Mr. McCain has less time to recover. And this time around he faces Mr. Romney, a well-financed opponent from a nearby state — one with a summer home in New Hampshire.

Mr. Gitell (gitell.com) is a contributing editor of The New York Sun.


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