Better Than Reality Television
This article is from the archive of The New York Sun before the launch of its new website in 2022. The Sun has neither altered nor updated such articles but will seek to correct any errors, mis-categorizations or other problems introduced during transfer.
NORTH CONWAY, N.H. — We are heading into uncharted territory.
We have the first important test of the presidential season on a Thursday night. We have the second important test five days later. We have candidates preparing to campaign through the holiday week between Christmas and New Year’s Day. We have a woman heading the Democratic field. We have a Mormon making a strong play in the Republican field. We have a minister-governor from the last president’s tiny hometown coming up fast in the polls and bragging about having the endorsement of a pro wrestler and the star of “Walker, Texas Ranger.” And there are people who do not think that politics is interesting? What are they looking for, waterboarding at the Republican debate?
There are a hundred questions, terribly important and terrifically interesting questions, that will be settled in the next 11 months. Here are some of them:
What will happen to the religious conservatives who once felt so comfortable in their Republican Party harbor? Is the new calendar so warped that the parties will tire of their nominees in a giant case of buyer’s remorse around Tax Day in April? Will that new calendar help clarify the differences between the parties and between the presumptive nominees? Will there be any role for the national conventions in Minneapolis and Denver, especially since the mainstream press outlets are so budget-conscious that there’s little money to cover these quadrennial politicofests?
More: How will the Internet change campaigning? Will some states opt out of the traditional Electoral College scheme and divide their votes rather than sending them in a big bloc, as they pretty much have done since the 18th century? Will voters choose a candidate they don’t like even if they think she is competent and has mastery of the skills they believe a president needs? Will the apparent success of the Iraq surge provide a surge in support for the candidate who supported it in the first place? (If it does, will the country feel comfortable with a president who would take the oath of office as an older man than Ronald Reagan was?)
And: Can a system that rewards the extremes, particularly in Iowa and New Hampshire, select candidates who can relate to the center of our politics? Does it matter if the candidates raise and spend more money than candidates ever have before? Will New Hampshire, which has chosen John F. Kennedy, Paul Tsongas, and John Kerry (though not Edward Kennedy) in the past, give a boost to another son of Massachusetts, even though Mitt Romney is not a native Bay Stater?
I’m not done yet: What is the relationship in the modern day between experience and competence? Can a superpower afford to select a president more out of hope of what he might accomplish than out of a reckoning of what he has accomplished? (And what does an Illinois state senator do anyway? Get back to me on that.)
Are debates illuminating in any way anymore? Will the fact that the Iowa caucuses may be dominated by people over 50 skew the results and their meaning? Is Governor Richardson of New Mexico stuck hopelessly in fourth place in the Democratic contest or is he perfectly positioned to take advantage of his rivals’ stumbles?
Stay with me here a few more moments: Why do reporters, even liberal ones who are skeptical about foes of abortion and people who can quote the Bible without having their aides look up quotes from Ecclesiastes, admire Mike Huckabee so much? Is it true that reporters are so invested in the notion of an underdog insurgent that they are propping up or propelling Mr. Huckabee’s campaign? (Don’t try to answer this question without calling former Governor Babbitt of Arizona, the 1988 press darling who dropped out the day after the New Hampshire primary.)
Are people going to want to encounter candidates at the shopping mall in Cedar Rapids while they are trying to finish their Christmas shopping? (Tell me the truth: Who’s more appealing, the guy ringing the bell for the Salvation Army or the traveling salvation show of Rep. Dennis Kucinich, the Ohio Democrat?)
The questions just keep on coming: Can John McCain find success in New Hampshire (where he won the 2000 primary by 19 percentage points) by appealing to a group of independents that is substantially bigger than the group of Republicans who find him unforgivably iconoclastic and glib?
How many people will vote for Mr. Romney because he is so good-looking? Will it be more than the number who will vote for John Edwards for the same reason? And is Mr. Edwards fishing in the wrong hole by being labor’s man (a big boon for Walter Mondale in Iowa in 1984, a disaster for him eight days later in New Hampshire)?
One more time around the circuit: Can Hillary Clinton continue to deal in airy canned remarks, or will she have to succumb to specifics? Will Rudolph Giuliani show his lovable side, if he can find it? Can a campaign that does a credible job in the first two states live to fight again if its candidate isn’t named Clinton, Obama, Giuliani, or Romney? (If you know the answer, you should get it to Mr. Edwards immediately.)
Did you read this deep into this column to see if the names Christopher Dodd and Joseph Biden would finally appear? Will either man be able to compensate for the fact that there is almost no article that contains their names anymore?
The last one: Honestly, has there ever been a reality television show nearly as good as this?