Just how big is Big Brown? Is the colt big enough to win the Triple Crown, revitalize an entire industry, wipe away unsavory political deal making, and spur local economic development?

He certainly is a mighty force on the racetrack. Under the guidance of jockey Kent Desormeaux, he won the first two legs of the Triple Crown — the Kentucky Derby and the Preakness Stakes — by grand stretches and ranks as the overwhelming favorite heading into Saturday’s Belmont Stakes.

As for the industry, thoroughbred racing has not had a Triple Crown winner in 30 years, when Affirmed edged out Alydar in all three races. Big Brown winning the Triple Crown certainly would be a plus, but would it truly alter the fundamentals of the business?

Over the past 20 years, horse racing has hit the skids. After being the only gambling option around, the industry got sloppy by taking the customer for granted. As casino gaming spread, fewer people came to the racetrack. Too many track operators forgot, or never learned, how to compete with the casino and innovate their own industry.

That most glaring example is the case with the New York Racing Association, the quasi-governmental nonprofit that’s been running New York State’s three tracks — Belmont Park in Nassau County, Aqueduct Race Track in Queens, and upstate’s Saratoga Race Course — since 1955. While Saratoga remains a destination spot for its special, late summer season, Aqueduct has degraded into a dump, and Belmont is grossly underutilized.

In recent times, NYRA has been best known for its incompetence, scandals, shortchanging of the taxpayers, and declaring bankruptcy in November 2006. Despite this grim record, then Governor Spitzer and the state legislature agreed in February to award NYRA a 25-year franchise to continue running the three tracks, along with a $105 million bailout.

In early April, the State Commission of Investigations said NYRA broke the law by failing to put out for competitive bidding a $125,000 per month contract for “business integrity” services, ironically.

Late last month, Governor Paterson voiced his displeasure with the agreement, indicating he would not have chosen NYRA due to its “pretty poor performance.” Nonetheless, Mr. Paterson is going along with the deal.

Big Brown probably will get a record crowd and give NYRA a huge betting day on Saturday. But that’s it. Whether or not we get a Triple Crown winner, it will not change the fact that Albany politicians rewarded NYRA for years of failure and corruption. So should anyone expect anything different from NYRA over the next quarter of a century?

Belmont Park — where Big Brown might make history — rests in the community of Elmont in Nassau County. Residents have complained that NYRA is not a good neighbor. There was hope that the deal to operate the racetracks might bring video lottery terminals (a.k.a. slot machines) to Belmont, and that would boost local economic development. But that did not happen, as slots are only slated for Aqueduct.

Now some wish that a Big Brown Triple Crown win might somehow boost the neighborhood. But contrary to the claims made by those in the sports industry and politicians doling out sports subsidies, almost all independent economic studies show that sports facilities, subsidies, and events are not engines of economic growth.

After all, it’s hard to make the case that three Triple Crown winners in the 1970s — Secretariat in 1973, Seattle Slew in 1977, and Affirmed in 1978 — made much of a difference to Elmont’s economy then. And Big Brown’s won’t if he wins in 2008.

I wouldn’t bet against Big Brown on Saturday. The colt seems well positioned to become the twelfth Triple Crown winner. But even if he romps to victory and into the history books, Big Brown is not big enough to make much of a difference for horse racing in general, for NYRA, or for Elmont.

Mr. Keating is a writer and economist who lives on Long Island.