Clinton’s Reprieve

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The New York Sun

With two weeks to go until the Pennsylvania primary, the leadership of the Clinton campaign can be thought of as a hungry, thirsty, and cold survivor on a lifeboat way out at sea. More than two months ago, it jettisoned a former campaign manager, Patti Solis Doyle. On Sunday it tossed the campaign’s chief strategist, Mark Penn, overboard.

Just as throwing an infirm passenger off of a vessel preserves dwindling food and water for those remaining, Mr. Penn’s resignation on Sunday will help keep the candidacy of Senator Clinton alive. There’s no question that there was enough of a reason for Mr. Penn’s “resignation”: a campaign working to win the votes of blue collar voters in Pennsylvania in a heavily industrial state cannot countenance a high-ranking member’s work on behalf of an issue that will antagonize that precise constituency. In Mr. Penn’s case, it is his efforts on behalf of the Colombian free trade agreement, which Mrs. Clinton opposes.

Two distinct political campaigns are currently being waged, and Mr. Penn failed at both. A traditional nominating fight, with primaries and elections, still is taking place. Mr. Penn attempted to control each detail of the previous contests, such as the Iowa caucuses, but mishandled it by ignoring dangerous signals on the ground. He also failed to grasp the importance of retaining and attracting superdelegates.

The removal of Mr. Penn can breathe life into a campaign struggling to avoid a fatal death spiral. Mr. Penn pushed, admirably, for centrism, going back to the 1996 presidential campaign. Until now Mr. Penn’s poll-driven centrism has awkwardly co-existed with the visceral appeal Mrs. Clinton has for white working class voters. Now, she can address the concerns of these core constituents without restriction from Mr. Penn. The senator will likely emerge during the next several days espousing an even more vocal form of populism.

All has not been lost for Mr. Penn, though, who reportedly earned more than $10 million for his service to the campaign. He stands atop the pyramid of political operatives, one of the few campaign strategists to walk away from losing electoral efforts with money in their pockets.

He will even continue to be paid by the Clinton campaign, albeit a smaller sum, since the Clinton campaign says he will remain in a diminished capacity as a pollster, a concession likely intended to keep him quietly on the reservation, and will allow the campaign to still draw the ire of labor leaders, such as James Hoffa.

A longtime press aide with an ear for the press and public sentiment, Howard Wolfson, will quarterback the campaign’s “strategic message team” along with a pollster who carries good relations with labor unions, Geoffrey Garin.

As the campaign increasingly becomes a grueling insider battle for superdelegates, Mrs. Clinton’s long-time political aide, Harold Ickes, will likely expand his influence by increasing superdelegates’s support of Mrs. Clinton. Mr. Ickes is a skilled political arm twister, voter counter, and master floor-fighter.

If the Clinton campaign can keep the race close, a result that requires a rousing victory in Pennsylvania, and avoid a hasty denouement in June, Mr. Ickes will make his move at the Democratic convention in Denver. First, he will attempt to get the delegates of Florida and Michigan seated (i.e., officially recognized) at the convention. Then he will try to navigate party rules governing the credentials committee and delegate allegiances to sway the support of delegates to Mrs. Clinton.

Discussion of ugly convention battles right now may appear premature and even fanciful. Yet if Mrs. Clinton is to be the Democratic nominee, this is the kind of strategy her aides need to be thinking about.

Mr. Gitell (gitell.com) is a contributing editor of The New York Sun.


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