Richard Viguerie have been firing shots across the bow of a presumed Rudy candidacy, with Mr. Viguerie telling the New York Observer that Mr. Giuliani is “wrong on all the values. Not some of them – all of them,” and calling our former mayor “The New York Times’ favorite Republican.”

Overheated Republican enthusiasms aside, I can attest that Mayor Giuliani has never been the New York Times’ favorite anything. He is, however, the Republican rank and file’s favorite presidential candidate for 2008 – something these right-wing voices devoted to dividing the Republican Party seem to be in deep denial about.

According to a McLaughlin and Associates poll taken on Election Day, Mr. Giuliani is the choice of 30% of likely Republican primary voters in 2008.At a distant second place is Senator McCain at 17%,followed by Governor Jeb Bush of Florida at 5%, and Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist and Governor Pataki at 2% each.

Some quick take-aways from this snapshot of Republican opinion: first of all, Republican primary voters are 15 times more likely to want Mayor Giuliani to be their future standard-bearer than Governor Pataki. More importantly, this list is dominated by centrists. Only Mr. Frist and arguably Governor Bush can be described as social conservatives – and both are a far cry from Jesse Helms-style conservatives of the past. If you add Arnold Schwarzenegger – constitutionally ineligible but a crowd favorite – you see a portrait of a GOP whose future is far more centrist than it is far right.

This is entirely consistent with the face the Republican Party put forward at its New York convention – Messrs. Giuliani, McCain, Schwarzenegger, and Pataki were all given prime-time speaking roles. Jerry Falwell and Pat Robertson were not invited. In the home stretch of the close election, the president campaigned constantly with Messrs. Giuliani, Mc-Cain, and Schwarznegger – while social conservatives like Attorney General Ashcroft were hard to find.

Before the election, I went down to Clay County, Mo., and interviewed Katee Porter, the chairman of the local county Republican Committee. I asked her “who are some of the future Republican leaders that folks out here get excited about looking to the next presidential election?” She answered without hesitation, “Giuliani – I think they’re probably expecting that he’ll be the next Republican presidential candidate. They like his energy. He did a really great job dealing with 9/11 in New York – he’s got great leadership qualities.” Mrs. Porter had never been to New York before the convention, but she sounded already sold. A candidate like Mr. Giuliani can not only win in the heartland, but he can bring about realignment by putting New York and California in play for the first time since Ronald Reagan.

The next four years will be part of an important debate within the Republican Party about what it really means to be conservative. Does it mean being a fiscally conservative tax cutter who believes in balanced budgets, smaller government, and more individual freedom? Does it mean being tough on crime and relentless on the war on terror? Does it mean taking on entitlements and bloated bureaucracy? Or does it mean imposing a narrow litmus test on social issues like immigration, gay rights, and abortion?

In their post-election fervor, some members of the religious right seem to have forgotten that the essence of evangelism is winning converts. To be a permanent majority party in the 21st Century, the Republican Party needs to be both a strong and big tent, and it needs leaders who communicate that message in both style and substance. Dividing the Republican Party is no way to unite the country.