For most Americans, Daniel Ortega is a name from the 1980s. Few know that he tops the polls to be the next president of Nicaragua. On November 5 the country’s citizens will cast their votes to elect a new president of the republic, as well as 92 members of the National Assembly. Ideally, this election will foster the democratic process in a country that has been struggling to abandon the remnants of an authoritarian past.

Through most of its post-independence history, Nicaragua has been trapped in the bonds of caudillismo, where a leader is all-powerful, the most conspicuous example of which was the rule of the Somoza family for much of the 20th century.

This state of affairs seemed to have ended in 1979 when the socialist, former guerrilla movement, Frente Sandinista de Liberación Nacional under Mr. Ortega toppled Anastasio Somoza’s regime and took over the government, promising justice and progress. But instead of using their power to improve the lives of Nicaraguans, the FSLN curtailed liberties, suppressed opposition parties, and exerted despotic power. No wonder Nicaraguans turned the Sandinistas down when real free elections took place in 1990.

The post-Sandinista era brought victories for Violeta Chamorro in 1990, Arnoldo Alemán in 1996, and Enrique Bolaños in 2001, largely because they ran campaigns against Mr. Ortega’s agenda. But perhaps the Sandinista leader will have the last laugh.

Mr. Ortega is now a presidential candidate for the fourth time. The Nicaraguan electorate will have the opportunity to choose among four other options. Eduardo Montealegre of the Alianza Liberal Nicaragüense, or Nicaraguan Liberal Alliance — which draws support from the middle class, the business sector, and some workers — is backed by the Bush administration. Should he win, he might become an ally of America. Mr. Montealegre is the wealthiest and youngest of the candidates. A dissident liberal and banker, he emerged on the political scene in opposition to Arnoldo Alemán’s corrupt political group, the Partido Liberal, or Liberal Party. A fiery opponent of the Sandinistas, Mr. Montealegre has criticized the many institutional ills of a deteriorating political order.

Edmundo Jarquín of the Movimiento de Renovación Sandinista, or Sandinista Renewal Movement, offers a kind of renovated sandinismo, socialism without suppressing freedom. Mr. Jarquín is a brilliant economist who received a law degree in Chile and was Nicaragua’s ambassador to Spain and Mexico during the Sandinista government of the 1980s. He is trailing Messrs. Ortega and Montealegre slightly, and it would be very difficult for him to take the lead. The problem for the Sandinista Renewal Movement is that Herting Lewites — a charismatic leader who helped set up the movement in 1995 and sought to reform the FSLN from within, but was expelled in March 2005 after challenging Mr. Ortega’s leadership — died of a heart attack on July 2.

Mr. Alemán’s party has chosen the liberal José Rizo as its candidate. However, claims of corruption made against Mr. Alemán – who was sentenced in 2003 to a 20-year prison term for crimes including money laundering, embezzlement, and corruption and because of health reasons is serving his term on his private ranch — together with the fact that Mr. Alemán has been running the party from the shadows, have made Mr. Rizo look fragile.

Finally, Edén Pastora Gómez — deputy defense minister under the Sandinistas and known among Latin Americans as Comandante Cero — is the candidate of the Alternativa por el Cambio, or Alternative for Change, another socialist party. He has never won elective office, including a failed 2004 mayoralty bid in Managua. Currently he is at the bottom of every poll.

Today Nicaraguan democracy seems to be at a crossroads. The next president must deal with a high public debt, which has inhibited economic growth. Poor economic performance and high unemployment have led to a situation in which nearly 75% of Nicaraguans live on less than two dollars a day. The political challenges are no less critical. In the year 2000 Messrs. Alemán and Ortega decided to set their differences aside and signed a pact to share power. The current political system is partly a Machiavellian arrangement concocted by Messrs. Alemán and Ortega to maintain their control over the electoral system and other institutions. As a result of this pact of convenience, the Supreme Electoral Council, the judiciary, and the National Assembly are under the control of Mr. Ortega’s FSLN and Mr. Alemán’s Partido Liberal.

Electoral fraud seems increasingly possible, as Mr. Ortega has not been shy in opposing the presence of electoral observers from both independent nongovermental organizations and the Organization of American States. So Nicaraguans face a challenge in holding transparent and fair elections.

At least three reasons explain the current popularity of Mr. Ortega among some Nicaraguans. First, he has presented himself as the candidate of the opposition capable of correcting the wrongs made by the post-Sandinista era. Second, in some quarters there is still nostalgia for the days the Sandinistas held power. Third, a spirit of anti-Americanism has increased over the last six years and strengthened the chances of whoever attacks American policy in the region.

The Bush administration ought to take note of the danger an Ortega victory represents not only to Nicaraguans but to security in the region. America should use intelligent diplomacy to ensure that Nicaraguans think of America as a friend rather than as an enemy.

Nicaragua needs a new, alternative, more modern, and democratic leadership to create a government where corruption, patronage, and bribery belong to the past. Unfortunately, the prospect of an Ortega victory darkens Nicaragua’s future.

Mr. Jaramillo is a Mexican journalist based in Washington, D.C.