Later this evening the chairman of the Democratic National Committee, Howard Dean, is scheduled to address an audience at a locale familiar to progressive activists, the Majestic Theatre in Madison, Wis.

Sure to be on display tonight will be the plan the good doctor has engineered for Democratic success in 2008. He likely will put the spotlight on the “50 state strategy,” a plan which “is making the Democratic Party competitive in every race, in every district, in every state and territory,” according to the Democratic National Committee’s Web site. But perhaps his signature tactic ought to be dubbed the “48 state strategy” since the DNC ignored two of the country’s most important states for the primary vote, Michigan and Florida.

Recent history has been mixed at best for Dr. Dean, who — it’s hard to remember now — electrified the 2004 presidential contest, at least for a time. But this time around, he is not doing so well.

Dr. Dean heads the party at a time when it will take the unprecedented act of ignoring the votes of more than two million people. As chairman of the party, Dr. Dean may not bear all the responsibility for the party’s attempt to discipline Florida and Michigan for flouting this cycle’s primary schedule, but as its official head, he will be held accountable for it.

It’s very possible that if Barack Obama secures the party’s nomination, the states’ delegates will be allowed to participate at the party’s convention in Denver. But the DNC already has alienated voters in those states. And any credit for the decision to seat them will go to the Democratic nominee, not Dr. Dean. The time to decide whether or not to seat the Florida and Michigan delegates is now, when it still matters. And Dr. Dean has done nothing to make sure that these votes will count.

Michigan and Florida are swing states with large populations that are often derided by advocates of the 50 state strategy as no longer necessary. Florida’s 25 electoral votes as well as Michigan’s 17 votes are vital to Democrats. Win the national election in states Mr. Obama won — Kansas, Nebraska, Idaho, etc. — goes the 50 state strategy, and the Democrats will find victory in November.

What this strategic analysis neglects is that all of Mr. Obama’s primary wins in places viewed as Republican states were won in Democratic caucuses and primaries. For the general race, Republicans and those independents who are Republican leaning need to be factored in, especially after the controversy over Jeremiah Wright, and Mr. Obama’s prospects don’t look so bright.

A Democratic political consultant who has worked on elections throughout the industrial Midwest, including Michigan, Henry Sheinkopf, says the decision on Michigan and Florida could be fatal to Democrats in a national election. The resonance of such an argument in Florida, given the 2000 experience, is all but obvious.

Mr. Sheinkopf envisions Republican counterparts cooking up a television ad that will denounce the Democrats’s decision to forego participation in Florida and Michigan’s primaries: “The basic argument for the fall [is] that the Democrats don’t believe in democracy … it alienates white Catholic men without whom, you can’t win.”

Despite some recent poll data that suggests Democratic voters in Florida can live with a decision to not seat their delegates, it’s hard to believe that it won’t leave some voters in Florida and Michigan dispirited come November. Dr. Dean should focus an adding those two states to the “50 state strategy” than improving the DNC’s standing in the rest of the states.

Mr. Gitell (gitell.com) is a contributing editor of The New York Sun.