Sunday may bring a rupture in an important international relationship — that between Guatemala and the U.S.

For that is the day when Guatemala’s citizens will cast their votes to elect a new president of the Republic, as well as a vice-president, 158 congressmen, and 332 local rulers.

This election takes place in the context of victories of left-wing parties all over Latin America. According to recent polls, Guatemalans are still undecided between supporting the right-of-center candidate, Otto Perez Molina, of the Patriot Party, or to give an opportunity to the left-leaning candidate, Alvaro Colom. The most likely scenario is a run-off which is scheduled to take place on November 4.

Through most of its post-independent history, Guatemala has oscillated between all-out civil war and authoritarian military regimes. For a time it appeared that Guatemalans would never enjoy the benefits of a democratic order. But this bleak prospect changed in the mid 1980s.

The long and winding road towards democracy in Guatemala can be said to have started in 1986 when Vinicio Cerezo from the Christian Democratic Party was sworn out as president under a new democratic constitution. Guatemala was poised to begin a virtuous cycle of constitutional government and economic progress.

January 14, 1991 was a historical day in the history of Guatemala when the first peaceful transition from one democratically elected president to another was completed. In recent years one good sign has been the strength of U.S-Guatemala relations. When President Bush met with President Berger in March, he emphasized the close relationship between the two countries. Today, both nations are trade partners, fellow democracies, and steadfast allies against terrorism.

But the young Guatemalan democracy faces many problems. The Berger administration is the first in the history of a democratic Guatemala that did not have an overwhelming majority in congress. The next president must confront powerful drug organizations, organized crime, promote the rule of law, spur the creation of wealth and jobs, and manage globalization.

The coming election is shaping up as a two-way contest. On the one hand, stands a self-described social democrat, the soft-spoken Alvaro Colom, who is topping the polls. An industrial engineer and businessman, Mr. Colom is a member of a distinguished family of politicians — one of Mr. Colom’s uncles was mayor of Guatemala City. Having lost the last presidential elections against Oscar Berger, Alvaro Colom is expecting a come back and now is holding on to the lead in Guatemala’s presidential race. He has been careful not to criticize the U.S. but he has not praised it either.

There are rumors, moreover, that Mr. Colom has been receiving assistance from Hugo Chavez. He has denied them. And well he might. For in this part of the world an endorsement from Mr. Chavez can be a handicap instead of an advantage. Ollanta Humala, a left-wing candidate who lost to Alan Garcia in Peru is said to have weakened his own prospects after Mr. Chavez’s endorsement.

This year in Mexico, the leftist candidate, Manuel Lopez Obrador, was charged by his opponents as having political links to Mr. Chavez. That compromised his status as an independent before Mexican voters, and led to the victory of the relatively U.S. friendly Felipe Calderon.

Coming in behind Mr. Colom in the polls is Otto Perez Molina, a 57-year- old former general, who is a U.S.-friendly candidate. His party is the right-wing Patriotic Party. He is campaigning on a law-and-order platform. Although Mr. Perez Molina is running a faltering campaign, he has been gaining ground and now has virtually tied Mr. Colom. Mr. Perez Molina will likely support maintaining good relations with the U.S.

The rest of the candidates are trailing the other two slightly, and it would take a miracle to put them into the lead. They are Alejandro Giammattei, from the ruling party Great National Alliance, Luis Rabbe of the Republican Guatemalan Front, Mario Estrada of the Union for Nationalist Change, and Fritz Garcia Gallont of the Unionist Party. Among these people, only Giammatei is especially pro-American.

There is good news, however. The radical left-winger, Rigoberta Menchu, also is running for office. But her party, Encounter for Guatemala, has lured few voters. For all her notoriety, Ms. Menchu has nothing to offer to a country that needs a future-oriented leadership.

There is a consensus among the Guatemalans that Ms. Menchu’s platform lacks substance. Her ideas are a blend of confused indigenismo — emphasis on the Native Indian groups — and old leftist canards. In late March, for instance, Ms. Menchu reiterated that she would revise the Central American Free Trade Agreement if she becomes president, saying, “We would like to enrich the treaty and see if it is useful to us. If it is not, then it is not.” She does not want this important agreement to survive in current form.

Clearly the next government will face myriad challenges, among them is the necessity to address violent and organized crime. On this score, Guatemala has one of the world’s highest per capita murder rates, with more than 5,000 killings a year. The United States Drug Enforcement Administration maintains that 80% of the cocaine destined for the U.S. passes through Guatemala. These troubles make Guatemalans want an easy scapegoat — the U.S. The troubles therefore stand in the way of a sensible victory for any candidate.

Mr. Jaramillo is a Mexican journalist based in Washington, D.C.