The St. Patrick’s Day Parade is the traditional beginning of the political season here in New York.

In 1997, the parade route was dominated by Republican politicians riding high in the polls: Mayor Giuliani, Governor Pataki, and Senator D’Amato. Add Attorney General Dennis Vacco, and the Republican Party controlled virtually every major elected seat of power in the state, with the exception of the Senate seat held by Daniel Patrick Moynihan, a centrist Democrat who was never beloved by the far left.

But what a difference a decade can make. While Republicans have been making gains across the nation, and Democrats appear in broad retreat, the opposite is occurring in New York.

The New York GOP is at a crossroads, one election away from irrelevance. Mayor Bloomberg faces a tough fight even in a city whose voting patterns have grown more centrist over the past decades. If he wins re-election, there is a strong chance that after 2006 this former liberal Democrat will be the leading Republican in New York State.

Attorney General Eliot Spitzer seems a prohibitive favorite to become governor in 2006, even if Mr. Pataki decides to pursue a fourth term for lack of anything better to do. Republicans have been unable to field a credible candidate against Senator Schumer or apparently in the upcoming race against Senator Clinton – despite the fact that she makes folks on the far right foam at the mouth.

And yet, at Monday night’s annual Lincoln Dinner, the New York County Republican Party appeared confident, young, and diverse. Their enthusiasm was equal parts denial and defiance. So too were the speeches from New York County leader James Ortenzio, Mr. Bloomberg, Mr. Pataki, and Governor Schwarzenegger of California. The crowd cheered Mr. Schwarzenegger’s charismatic prescription for statewide pension and political reform, but when Mr. Pataki attempted to rally the troops by saying “this party is growing in every corner of this great state,” the rhetoric rang hollow.

On the surface, this should be a party on the ascent. Only seven months ago, President Bush brought the Republican Convention to Madison Square Garden, and the local party faithful are still feeling justified and painless at the result. New York has experienced the benefit of 12 consecutive years of Republican control of City Hall, with unprecedented crime decline, economic growth, and the resurgence of a city that was once widely considered ungovernable.

In the recent past of New York politics, the rule was “no Republicans need apply.” But the number of city council districts that voted by more than 50% for a Republican governor increased to 16 from four between 1994 and 2002. Likewise 29 City Council districts voted by more than 50% for Mr. Giuliani’s re-election in 1997 – which was also the first New York mayoral election a candidate could have won on the Republican line alone. In 2001, Mr. Bloomberg received 23 districts with more than 50% support. In 2004, Mr. Bush increased his citywide total of the vote by 200,000.

This general trend should be encouraging: while Republicans still face a 5-to-1 registration deficit, New Yorkers are demonstrably more comfortable voting Republican than they were in the recent past. Even the liberal enclave of the Upper West Side – of “Seinfeld” and socialist summer camps – voted 59% for Mr. Giuliani’s 1997 reelection (repudiating local resident Ruth Messinger) and 48% for Mr. Bloomberg in 2001. We have come a long way from Moscow on the Hudson.

But a sober stare at the demographics doesn’t look good for the local GOP in upcoming races. Republicans have always depended upon Staten Island, but turnout on the island has been generally declining, while in the Bronx it has been trending upward, even without a native son like Fernando Ferrer on the ticket. This increases the importance of a strong turnout for the mayor in Queens, which is precisely where Mr. Bloomberg has been having the most problems with his Republican base. It would be optimistic of the Republicans to expect to gain even a single additional seat in the City Council, where they now have three of 51 seats.

New York City voters aren’t giving Republicans the credit they deserve for turning around the city. This problem is also seen statewide. Suburban voters have been increasingly comfortable choosing moderate Democrats over conservative Republicans. The ticket splitting has been spurred by a sharp rise in the number of independent voters, who now make up a quarter of the electorate in places like traditionally Republican Suffolk County. In New York City, the rise in these independent voters has increased more than 300% in the past 12 years, to 640,831 voters at the start of 2005 from 209,076 in 1993, according to the New York City Board of Elections. This rising tide of voters cannot be ignored.

It is tempting but unwise to ignore the fact the Republican Party in New York is in real trouble. The state organization is on the brink of bankruptcy, and it is entirely possible that within two years there might be not a single citywide or statewide elected Republican official. How can Republicans avoid that fate? The answer lies in party building, a capital-intensive effort to recruit competitive candidates, rally the base, and reach out to independents. The party cannot afford conservative cannibalization. As campaign season begins with the parade next week, it is worth remembering the consequences of drifting down the wrong path at this crossroads: no less than the effective, if temporary, end of the two-party system in our city and state.