Astatement by Fidel Castro was read on Cuba state-controlled television last Sunday night that he was delegating his vast presidential duties for several months to recover from a “complicated” abdominal surgery. His obligations were temporarily ceded to Cuba’s defense minister, his brother, Raul. Three leading party figures were respectively charged with specific programs in heath, education, and energy. For the first time in forty-seven years, Castro was all of a sudden not the “Maximum Leader.”

Coming from a regime with a tight grip on information and no public oversight, the sparse official declaration was not unexpected. What has become notorious is the complete absence of Raul from the public scene since the announcement. This only contributes to the flurry of speculation.

From Miami to Washington to Madrid three theories are juggled: 1. That Fidel is actually dead and the regime is buying time to secure full control of the country. 2. That Fidel is incapacitated and may or may not recover. 3. That Fidel is not yet on his deathbed, but allowing this test run to tweak the glitches for when the time does arrive, which is expected to be soon. Countless nuances elaborate on each argument.

Regardless of what’s ensuing behind closed doors, for some time it has been obvious that the Comandante is losing physical and mental faculties. Raul’s control over different state sectors has been expanding. In recent weeks, unprecedented official talk surfaced of a succession in the hands of Raul as guardian of the Communist Party. This comes hand-in-hand with a shake-up at all levels of government and a public campaign focused on generals said to be loyal to Raul. Yet, just months ago, mention of Fidel’s mortality was unfathomable.

Despite relative normalcy on the streets in Cuba and seemingly rehearsed statements of popular adulation for Fidel, reports of cut-off telephone communications and increased police patrols are coming in from the island. Fear and double standards are pervasive in Cuba under Castro, so not much seems to have changed. But, it is clear that a monumental change is underway. No doubt, sooner rather than later, Fidel will be history. This is news worth half a century.

The Cuban regime has been carefully planning the succession. Raul, who is 75, has been the designated heir from the earliest days of the Revolution, at first more or less clear, later, very officially. Yet, most pundits agree that he has an almost impossible act to follow. Without the charisma, oratory skill, and narcissist appetite for power, few think he will be able to control the power grab that will probably ensue after the initial period of official mourning. Plus, there is the same “biological solution” in the making. Some point out, however, that he is a skilled hands-on manager, a pragmatist, and likely reformer. One thing is certain, though; he has been as ruthless as his older brother.

Partners in crime, the Castros are responsible for the execution and deaths of thousands of Cubans. Raul, in fact, has historically been charged with the bloodiest deeds. Whereas he is said to have delivered the coup de grace after firing squads, Fidel has never implicated himself so obviously.

When Cuban dictator Fulgencio Batista took to exile on January 1, 1959, Raul was charged with the governorship of Santiago, the country’s second-largest city. While Fidel triumphantly marched toward Havana, Raul was ordering executions. He had at least 278 former members of the Batista government, police force, or Armed Forces executed in the first fifteen days of January. In just one day, on January 12th, he sent, without trial, over one hundred men to the firing squad. Raul is said to have stomped into the room where a Revolutionary Tribunal was staging a mass trial. Holding a caliber .45 pistol under his belt and a machine gun on his hand, he yelled, “Bring this comedy to an end. These despicable men don’t even deserve a trial, they are unworthy dogs.” The men were taken in groups to San Juan Hill, where they were executed to cries of “Long live Cuba” or “Long live Christ the King.” The killings went on all night, the victims buried in mass graves dug by bulldozers.

Raul was defense minister during the bloody Angola war of the 1980’s, during which several civilian massacres were reported, including a chemical gas attack on a village documented by U.N. observers. But what is perhaps his most heinous exploit is his leadership, as defense minister, for over four decades of systematic assassination of civilians trying to flee Cuba. Special Air Force units have been dedicated to sinking rafts by throwing sandbags from helicopters or light planes. The mere beginning of a documentation effort (CubaArchive.org) has uncovered more than two hundred victims of Cuban border guards, mostly civilians, including many children. The preliminary tally already exceeds the number of total assassinations in Berlin Wall crossings.

Raul is also Castro’s primary and only known associate in the plunder of Cuba’s economic resources. The Limited Partnership of Two has accumulated vast wealth via the most spectacular privatization of an entire country, no matter it’s been materially destroyed in the process. As ordinary Cubans live destitute existences, the brothers also control a vast global conglomerate of enterprises that feed a network of bank accounts in Switzerland. A select group of cronies within the highest echelons of the ruling elite is allowed to participate only within certain bounds. What is perhaps most important in analyzing events is often missed.

Whether it is Raul — alone or in conjunction with others — who affects the planned succession, what happens next will depend primarily on who holds the key to Cuba’s huge repressive apparatus. If reports from former Cuban intelligence officers are true, Cuba has more secret police and informants per capita than any of the former Soviet bloc countries, including the former Soviet Union’s KGB and East Germany’s Stasi. Cuba’s vast Stalinist apparatus is well geared to handle events, at least in the beginning, as long as the leadership can maintain cohesiveness. State structures controlling all aspects of society are also well in place.

Surely, there is opportunity for hope that change will come for Cuba. But, in contemplating how to deal with Fidel Castro’s successors, let’s not lose sight of the critical goal. The rightful freedoms of the Cuban people, especially after so many decades of suffering, are not negotiable. Creative and bold actions are all up for discussion, but only as long as they lead to the establishment of a full democracy under the rule of law. Yes, let’s talk, but about how to set the course for all rights — civic, political, economic — to be fully delivered to the entire Cuban nation.

Ms. Werlau is president of the Free Society Project, Inc., a non-profit corporation dedicated to advancing human rights primarily through scholarship. Their project, Cuba Archive, is documenting the cost in lives of the Cuban Revolution.