The New York Republican Party stands at a precipice. The Pataki years are ending with the statewide GOP in retreat and Democrats on the rise. But rather than passively accepting this political counter-cycle, a diverse group of experienced Republicans are looking forward and beginning a debate about the future of the Party of Lincoln in the Empire State.

Imagine the following statewide Republican ticket in 2006 – Randy Daniels for governor, Edward Cox for senator, John Faso for comptroller, and Jeanine Pirro for attorney general. Even in an uphill battle against Eliot Spitzer and the Democrats, it is a strong and distinctive ticket – a confident sign of life in the post-Pataki era.

Despite the sea of speculation around the most recent out-of-state trial balloon for the New York elected office, the name of the popular former governor of Massachusetts, William Weld, is noticeably absent from the names assembled above – but he is present in spirit. All are unapologetic Northeast Republicans, conservative on crime, taxes, and controlling spending; committed to education reform and economic development. They may not check off every box on a narrow social-issue litmus test, but they represent a big-tent vision of the Republican Party that implicitly addresses many of the demographic hurdles the party will have to deal with if it wants to pull out of its current decline.

The Republican Party’s base is shrinking – it can no longer rely on winning elections by welding white upstate conservatives with swing voters in the suburbs. Formerly dependable Republican counties such as Suffolk, Nassau, and Westchester have turned against the GOP in recent years. The ranks of immigrants are growing, and the Republican Party will need to do a better job of reaching out to them without retreating from core principles. This means doing something other than selling out the state budget to Union 1199 in return for a high-profile Latino endorsement come election time.

The problem is made more difficult by a structural deficit left in place by the Pataki years. “The problem is that we had 12 years to build a state party and we didn’t do it,” Rep. Peter King, the Long Island Republican, told me. When asked what direction the party should move in to grow deeper roots in the future, Mr. King said, “We have to be the party of working people, the party of cops and firemen, the regular neighborhood guy. These are the swing voters we need to appeal to, the Reagan Democrats.”

Mr. Weld is much more blue blood than blue collar, and the excitement around his recent speculation about a future run for New York governor seems to come as much from his maverick celebrity and more obvious experience than the drumbeat of grassroots demand. The whole spectacle so far feels very reminiscent of last week’s local tempest when former Nebraska senator and current New School President Bob Kerrey flirted with and then distanced himself from a run for New York City mayor all within 72 hours – throwing the other Democratic contenders into chaos.

Reflexive Democratic attacks calling Mr. Weld a carpetbagger are breathtaking in their hypocrisy after Hillary Clinton, but there are signs he would meet resistance from local conservatives as well. “I’m not really keen on anyone nominated for ambassador by Bill Clinton,” cracked the chairman of the Conservative Party in Brooklyn, Jerry Kassar.

If the local Republican Party’s future depends on realigning Reagan Democrats, it may make more sense to nominate a former Democrat who identifies with Ronald Reagan. Secretary of State Randy Daniels has been barnstorming the state, speaking to local Conservative and Republican groups in his bid to become the first black Republican nominee for New York governor. In an April 19 speech to Albany County Republicans, Mr. Daniels associated himself with Lincoln and Reagan, saying, “We need Republicans who agree with Abraham Lincoln that we are the party of freedom, and we need Republicans who agree with Ronald Reagan who believe that we are the future.”

He is a powerful communicator and committed to restoring the big-tent relevance of the Republican Party.

A close friend of Mr. Daniels, from their work on statewide education reform, is successful Patterson Belknap attorney and Nixon son-in-law Edward Cox. A former Ralph Nader aide and veteran of the Reagan White House, Mr. Cox has been since December aggressively putting together a campaign for the U.S. Senate against Hillary Clinton. The past week found him holding fund-raisers in Texas and Florida, while yesterday he was speaking to a Republican group in upstate Orange County. An engaging and even keeled presence, when asked about the future direction of the local Republican Party and its differences with the Democrats, he told me, “In general, Democratic officeholders are interested in power for power’s sake; Republicans seek office to effectuate their principles. New York needs what we offer – lower taxes, less regulation, and a high-tech future. The governor’s vision of New York being the world’s nanotech center has produced minimal short-term political benefits for him, but the future economic benefits for New York are huge.”

Rounding out this hypothetical 2006 statewide Republican ticket are John Faso, the highly regarded, fiscally conservative former state legislator who ran a strong race for comptroller in 2002, and the high-profile Westchester District Attorney Jeanine Pirro. Together, this team makes a strong case that the Republican Party post-Pataki is not anemic, out of new candidates, or new ideas.

The Pataki era may be ending, but that could be a good thing for reform Republicans who see in this challenge an opportunity, not just for rebuilding but for growth.