Tuesday’s primary is slated to be one of the most competitive in recent years, but whatever the outcome, one thing is certain: Manhattan will be getting a political facelift.

Term limits are having their intended effect, with a generation of local political officials sunsetting while a new generation competes for their chance to serve. Most Manhattan City council seats will turn over, as will the position of Manhattan borough president. Despite the claims of the Democratic Party operatives who tried repeatedly to block the idea of term limits, these races prove the limits provide exactly what was advertised: increased civic engagement, competitive races, and a healthy destabilization of the local political establishment.

That’s the good news. The downside is that an almost nomenklatura-like line of succession has emerged, with former staffers of current incumbents campaigning as the heavily favored heirs-apparent in their districts.

But some unexpectedly competitive challengers have the local political establishment worried about results on Election Day.

One such example is evident in the fight for the City Council seat currently held by Margarita Lopez, which is being pursued by ten individuals. Ms. Lopez’s former chief of staff, Rosie Mendez, was expected to win easily, but the seat that was carved to create a Hispanic majority is facing healthy pressure from changing demographics. Ms. Mendez’s nervousness was sufficient to cause her to challenge the ballot signatures of six other candidates. The seat has attracted a wide range of aspirants, including a former federal prosecutor named Michael Beys and an East Village minister named Joan Brightharp. A former aide to Council Speaker Gifford Miller, Gur Tsabar, surprised many when he received the New York Times’ endorsement for his comparatively grass-roots campaign, while other former Council staffers such as Darren Bloch and Brian Kavanagh have received praise for their knowledge of local policy. The fact that so many of the candidates have roots in the City Council is perhaps as regrettable it is as inevitable, but at least the anticipated coronation of the incumbent’s former chief of staff is being challenged.

In Harlem, another child of the political establishment is facing a surprisingly strong challenge that has some local power brokers nervous. Harlem’s old guard political elite has come out strongly in favor of Inez Dickens, the daughter of the late Assemblyman Lloyd Dickens, in the latest evidence that local politics is becoming a family business. But a former staffer for the president of Manhattan, C. Virginia Fields, named Yasmin Cornelius is mounting a serious challenge. A district manager of the local community board and a past president of her NAACP chapter, Cornelius has excited supporters outside the local establishment, bringing healthy political competition in a district that has often operated like a fiefdom in the past. Likewise, in East Harlem, Councilman Phil Reed’s chosen successor is facing a strong challenge from Hispanic candidate Melissa Mark-Viverito, raising the possibility that an East Harlem resident will represent their district, rather than feeling like perpetual political orphans.

The outgoing City Council member from Harlem, Bill Perkins, is one of 10 term-limited candidates attempting to retain their influence in the city politics – and presumably clear the way for a future run for mayor in 2009 – by following in the steps of successful former Manhattan borough presidents Robert Wagner and David Dinkins. Perkins’ record of pandering to the far left by introducing bills such as non-citizen voting place him outside of the mainstream of both New York and American politics, but he is nonetheless a serious contender, along with Assemblyman Scott Stringer and Council Member Eva Moskowitz, who has developed a reputation as an independent reformer on the issue of education.

The fight for Eva Moskowitz’s Upper East Side seat could provide one of the few competitive races to watch this fall. In contrast to the neighboring race where Gifford Miller’s former chief of staff, Jessica Lappin, is heavily favored to win her old bosses seat, there is no heir apparent from Ms. Moskowitz’s office leading the Democratic primary pack. That’s created an opportunity for Republican Patrick Murphy, who is running a strong and unconventional campaign that could shake up the City Council. A former intern for the late Senator John Chafee of Rhode Island, Mr. Murphy is a former president of the New York City Log Cabin Republicans. The fact that Republicans such as John Lindsay represented the district in Congress gives Mr. Murphy hope, but the real reason this race matters that the Republican Party has no representation from Manhattan in the City Council. It is an absurd situation, and some hope that the turnaround can begin with Patrick Murphy.

The fact that so few Republicans are running competitive local races in the fall indicates the real stakes of this primary and the still weak state of our local politics. It is pathetic that in a city as great as New York so many local races are effectively decided in the closed partisan primary, without any serious contest in the general election.

The Democratic Party’s control of our city’s bureaucracy and local government outside of the mayor’s office remains nearly complete. Even with term limits, the old political machine has found a way to perpetuate its influence. The process of local politics has become a family business passed on either literally from father to son, or from incumbent to chief of staff. Until we have open primaries, or the local Republican Party becomes serious about competing, reform-minded voters’ best bet for changing the political culture is to oppose the local establishment’s favored candidate. That way, primaries can become what they were intended to be: a healthy competition of ideas designed to inject new blood into an ossified body politic.