Opportunity Knocks

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As tensions escalate over Israel’s military response to Hezbollah’s kidnapping of two Israeli soldiers and its bombing of Israeli cities, much of the international community, led by the U.N. secretary general and Security Council and the EU, has already expressed grave concern that any sustained Israeli assault on the Lebanese group would be bad for the prospects of an Israeli-Palestinian peace, bad for the stability of Lebanon, and bad for the West.

Capitalizing on his position as host of the G8 summit, President Putin insisted the Israel’s response to Hezbollah’s provocation must remain “balanced,” while President Jacques Chirac accused Israel of seeking to “destroy Lebanon.” Even President Bush, who squarely blamed Hezbollah and its Iranian and Syrian patrons for the fresh conflagration warned against activities by Israel that would weaken or topple the Lebanese government.

Such views are far less accurate than the hundreds of Hezbollah missiles and rockets that terrorized northern Israel over the past few days, spreading death and destruction as far as the towns of Haifa, Tiberias, and Safed, which have previously been spared such attacks.

Indeed, the opposite is true. If the international community is sincere in its desire to see Hamas moderate its position, to see Iran’s regional aspirations curtailed, to see the consolidation of democracy in Lebanon, and to see the defeat of the global Islamist terror threat, then an Israeli military campaign that demoralizes and weakens Hezbollah is a good thing.

First of all, despite protestations that Hezbollah not support the Palestinian struggle in any “concrete way,” the reality is that since the Israeli withdrawal from Lebanon in 2000 Hezbollah, has increased significantly its practical support for the terror activities of Hamas, Islamic Jihad, and the al-Aqsa Brigades by way of training volunteers, supplying arms and gathering intelligence. Congressional figures published last year linked Hezbollah in some way or another in up to 75% of terror attacks against Israel between late 2003 and late 2004.

Given such close ties between Hezbollah and Hamas, it stands to reason that a weakened Hezbollah would result in a weakened Hamas. This in turn may force the current Palestinian Arab government to embrace a more conciliatory path — if only to be spared a similar fate to its role model in Lebanon.

Linked to this is the fact that a weakened Hezbollah would result in a weakened Iran. The Lebanese organization was created by the mullahs in Tehran, from whom it continues to take its ideology, its guns and its money. The neutralization of Hezbollah as the foremost instrument of Iran’s imperialist ambitions in the region can hardly be a bad thing.

In particular, a weakened Hezbollah would also be less able to achieve its goal (first set out in 1985) of creating an Islamic republic in Lebanon as a stepping stone to the establishment of the worldwide caliphate. This in turn would provide a lifeline to democratic forces, whose efforts to bring stability following the Syrian withdrawal from the country last year have been greatly hindered by the influence that Hezbollah exerts in all walks of life. After all, one can hardly speak about democratization so long as armed gangs impose their will on the sovereign government.

Perhaps most importantly for the West, a weakened Hezbollah would mean a weakened global Islamist terror network.

Well before the creation of al-Qaeda, Hezbollah had already established itself at the forefront of international terrorism through such acts as the October 1983 bombing of the marines barracks in Beirut, in which 241 people died. By the mid-1990s, when al-Qaeda was only commencing its global terror operations, Hezbollah, at times in partnership with its Iranian patron, had already claimed responsibility for attacks in Ankara, Turkey, against the Saudi military attaché in the city and in Brussels, where it assassinated the Saudi-born Imam of a local mosque for his perceived refusal to condemn Salman Rushdie’s “Satanic Verses” (1989), as well as in Tehran against the French Embassy and Air France offices (1993). It was also responsible for the two car bomb attacks in Buenos Aires, Argentina, that destroyed the Israeli embassy, killing 29 (1992), and the Israeli-Argentine Mutual Association, or AMIA, that killed 100 and wounded more than 200 (1994).

The report of the National Commission on Terrorist Attacks Upon the United States notes that in 1999 senior American anti-terror officials were expressing concern over possible attacks by Hezbollah on American targets. By early 2002, the FBI had concluded that between 50 and 100 Hezbollah and Hamas operatives had infiltrated America. Though they were primarily involved in fund-raising and logistics, it was believed that most had received terror training in the Middle East prior to arriving, and thus had the potential to quickly transform themselves into operational terror cells.

No less worrying from the perspective of the global war on terror is the fact that Hezbollah is also believed to have a number of cells working in Europe and Africa, and has also stepped up its efforts in Latin America, especially in the “triple border”— the triangular area connecting Argentina, Brazil and Paraguay.This is the home of a vibrant international drugs, forgery and money laundering operation.

All this means that though a major Israeli military operation against Hezbollah carries risks, if successful, it also offers great opportunities. For it will weaken the group’s capacity to aid and abet Hamas, to act as Iran’s proxy in the region, to further destabilize and radicalize Lebanon and to develop and consolidate its global terror network.

How can this be a bad thing?

Efraim Karsh is professor and head of Mediterranean Studies and Rory Miller is a senior lecturer in Mediterranean Studies at King’s College, University of London.


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