Governor Pataki’s announcement that he will not seek re-election was not without its share of drama. Hundreds of summoned state workers lined a hallway between the executive chamber and the parlor where the announcement was made, as Mr. Pataki strode through the crowd like a prizefighter toward the ring. Cheers and applause followed him the entire way. Some people lifted handwritten messages above the crowd. Patriotic images passed across a movie screen.

It was a stirring scene. Mr. Pataki’s family, including his mother, joined him for the speech, and many of the personalities from his three terms in office converged on the scene like the cast of a play at the end of a show. Some even wept. But now that the show is over, someone might want to shed a tear for the political party Mr. Pataki leaves in his wake. Despite the enthusiasm displayed by Mr. Pataki’s staff last Wednesday, few Republican leaders in the state are excited as they look ahead. Though they don’t like to admit it, their party is on the ropes.

The most obvious problem is the governor’s office. Republicans who were energized by three straight victories under Mr. Pataki suddenly find themselves for the first time in 11 years without a power broker in the executive chamber. Party leaders responded to this situation last week by gathering for a strategy session in Buffalo. The upshot of that event was that the chairman of the state committee, Stephen Minarik, resolved to place a call to Mayor Giuliani in an attempt to lure him into next year’s race. As of late Friday, America’s Mayor hadn’t returned the call.

Next on the list of Republican woes is the condition of its majority in the Senate. The party has enjoyed majority status in the upper chamber for decades, but now finds itself vulnerable. Republicans outnumbered Democrats 36 to 25 the year Mr. Pataki took office and have lost one seat since. More worrisome, though, is the vintage of their conference. The majority leader, Joseph Bruno, is 76, as is the chairman of the finance committee, Owen Johnson. John Marchi, of Staten Island, is 84; and William Larkin, of Orange County, is 77. Many older incumbents live in increasingly Democratic areas. Some are predicting a shift in the majority as soon as next year.

The picture for Republicans is even bleaker in the Assembly. Under Mr. Pataki, Republicans there have lost 10 seats, increasing the margin of the Democratic majority in the 150-seat body to 58 from 48 in 1994. What’s more, many of the seats the Democrats have gained in the Assembly are held by 30-somethings like Ruben Diaz of the Bronx and Ryan Karben of Rockland County, who can expect to hold onto their jobs for decades. While the nation as a whole has trended Republican, winning five of the last seven presidential races and securing majorities in both houses of Congress, New York at the grass roots has gone from blue to bluer with a Republican at the helm.

Voter registration records prove it. When Mr. Pataki upset Mario Cuomo a little more than a decade ago, registered Democrats outnumbered Republicans in New York by 4.1 million to 2.7 million. Today, registered Democrats here outnumber registered Republicans by 5.5 million to 3.1 million.

Critics of the Republican Party in New York say party organizers focus too much on the governor’s office and too little on local or even other statewide races. Excepting Mr. Pataki’s victories as governor and Dennis Vacco’s election as the state’s attorney general in 1994, no Republican has won a statewide office in more than a decade. “We’re back to where we were 20 years ago,” the chairman of the New York Young Republicans, Robert Hornak, said. “We’re losing control of major Republican strongholds across the state; we’re losing seats in the Senate and the Assembly; and it seems like an incredible uphill battle just to hold onto one statewide seat in 2006. The party is coming apart at the seams.”

The chairman of the state committee, Mr. Minarik, disputes this. Yet the first piece of evidence he offers to the contrary, the likely reelection of Mayor Bloomberg this fall, only underscores the point. A lifelong Democrat who switched parties to avoid a primary fight just before his first election, Mr. Bloomberg has done as little to build the party in New York City as Mr. Pataki has done to build the party in New York State.