Singing the Blue State Blues
This article is from the archive of The New York Sun before the launch of its new website in 2022. The Sun has neither altered nor updated such articles but will seek to correct any errors, mis-categorizations or other problems introduced during transfer.
Watching the Republican National Convention last week, one could almost forget that Republicans are a besieged minority in New York State. Playing host to the affair at New York City’s Madison Square Garden were a Republican governor and a Republican mayor. A former mayor, also Republican, played a starring role. If cowboy-hatted delegates found the streets cleaner and safer than they had expected, Governor Pataki was there to remind them that crime rates and welfare rolls had plunged during a decade of Republican control at Albany and City Hall. And the union representing city firefighters, rather than picketing outside Madison Square Garden, chose instead to endorse President Bush for re-election.
Even at this moment of triumph, however, there were reminders that New York is a decidedly blue state on the electoral map. Mayor Bloomberg, for example, kept a low profile. He is running for re-election next year, and is no doubt aware that associating too closely with Mr. Bush will alienate the overwhelmingly Democratic electorate of New York City.
The Republican candidate for senator from New York, Howard Mills, circulated with hat figuratively in hand, struggling to overcome Senator Schumer’s 49-point lead in opinion polls and 50-1 advantage in fund-raising. Meanwhile the A-list speakers making the rounds of the convention – including Mayor Giuliani, Vice President Cheney, and Senator McCain – bypassed the New York delegation to spend time with the Republican visitors from Ohio, Pennsylvania, and other swing states in the presidential race. The home team, representing Electoral College votes that are irrevocably in Senator Kerry’s column, found themselves hobnobbing with such lesser lights as Mr. Mills, Lieutenant Governor Mary Donohue, and Mr. Bush’s sister, Doro Bush Koch.
Voter enrollment trends do not give the New York GOP much hope of escaping from its backwater anytime soon. Over the past eight years, according to figures from the state Board of Elections, the number of registered Democrats grew 9.2%, to 5.2 million voters, while the number of Republicans was up only 2.8%, to 3.1 million.
This reflects the fact that the Democratic stronghold of New York City has been gaining new residents, largely through immigration, while predominantly Republican upstate areas, beset by economic weakness, have been stagnating or losing population.
The former Republican minority leader of the state Assembly, John Faso, notes that Democratic enrollment advantage in 1994, when Mr. Pataki defeated Governor Cuomo, was 1.2 million registered voters. By 2002, when Mr. Pataki won his third term, the gap had grown to 2 million voters.
“Believe me, I learned firsthand what that gap meant,” said Mr. Faso, who narrowly lost the race for state comptroller that same year. Two years later, in 2004, the Democratic advantage is approaching 2.1 million.
The situation is not as grim as it might first appear. Democrats still represent less than half of the 11.1 million registered voters in the state. And if enrollment figures accurately predicted how people vote, Messrs. Giuliani, Pataki, and Bloomberg never could have won. “Just because there’s 2 million more Democrats, that doesn’t translate into people going out to the polls,” said the executive director of the state GOP, William McGahey. “We don’t think that’s a real number.”
Still, no Republican aside from Mr. Pataki and his running mate, Ms. Donohue, has won a statewide race since 1994. And Mr. Pataki held onto his office by embracing liberal positions on environmental regulation, gun control, gay rights, and other issues, loosening the tight control he kept on state spending during his early years in office, and actively courting traditionally Democratic interest groups such as labor unions and Latinos. Similarly, Mr. Bloomberg – who was, after all, a Democrat until shortly before seeking office – might not have won the mayor’s race of 2001 if not for the crisis of September 11,a strong endorsement from Mr. Giuliani, and his ability, as a billionaire, to spend $74 million of his own money on the campaign. The brightest light ahead for New York Republicans is Mr. Giuliani, whose bipartisan appeal soared in the aftermath of September 11,2001,and remains sky-high to this day. But Mr. Giuliani seems more interested in seeking the White House in 2008 than in challenging Senator Clinton or running for governor in 2006.
Republicans could easily lose their most important New York footholds over the next two years. Several credible Democrats are lining up to challenge Mr. Bloomberg next year, and Attorney General Eliot Spitzer and Mr. Schumer – two proven vote-getters in statewide races – are possible candidates for governor in 2006.
Even the Republican majority leader of the state Senate, Joseph Bruno, is scrambling to preserve his 38-24 majority. One of his strategies is to recruit candidates from the Democrats and repackage them as Republicans. In state Senate elections this fall, Mr. Bruno is backing three former Democrats, including Senator Olga Mendez of East Harlem and two Democrats, including Assemblyman Stephen Kaufman of the Bronx.
Another tactic Republicans are trying this year is to make a stronger play for the votes of immigrants and minority groups. This might explain why the party opened a branch office in Washington Heights, recruited Ms. Mendez to the state Senate Republicans, and is running an African-American candidate, Al Curtis, for a state Senate seat covering parts of Staten Island and Brooklyn.
Mr. Faso argued that Republicans could build their support among immigrant groups by emphasizing their efforts to raise standards in public education, improve the climate for small business, and control the cost of health insurance.
“If you believe in a strong national defense, entrepreneurship, self-reliance, and opportunity, you’re a Republican,” Mr. Faso said, echoing the convention speech by Governor Schwarzenegger.
If these gambits work, New York’s Republicans might continue swimming against the tide. If not, the Republican National Convention could go down in history as their last hurrah.