Substance Over Style

This article is from the archive of The New York Sun before the launch of its new website in 2022. The Sun has neither altered nor updated such articles but will seek to correct any errors, mis-categorizations or other problems introduced during transfer.

The New York Sun

It’s back to New Hampshire for John McCain.

When Senator McCain takes the stage for a town meeting at Daniel Webster College in Nashua, N.H., later this week, his performance will serve two purposes. First, it will represent an effort to win a vital swing state. Second, a return to a town meeting style of campaigning, where candidates respond to questions from voters for a prolonged period of time, could help him perfect a vital tactic of being able to answer tough, surprising questions.

The Granite State has had a longstanding love affair with the Arizona senator. Mr. McCain beat President Bush here in 2000. And his unlikely primary victory five months ago over Mitt Romney placed him on the path for the Republican nomination.

When Mr. McCain’s campaign was written off as dead one year ago, he rebuilt it by having one New Hampshire town meeting after another. With Mr. Obama’s smooth speaking style and messianic movement threatening to overwhelm Mr. McCain, returning to New Hampshire’s familiar ground will help ready the former navy captain for the battle to come.

New Hampshire’s importance in presidential politics typically has been limited to its first-in-the-nation primary, where residents personally meet, greet, and test candidates. In recent cycles, though, New Hampshire has become important for another reason. Its four electoral votes could be the difference in a hotly contested national race: Had Al Gore defeated Mr. Bush here in 2000, the former vice president would have had a three-vote advantage in the electoral college no matter what happened in Florida. But the state is now within the grasp of Democrats due to John Kerry’s win in 2004.

Recent polls suggest that Mr. McCain’s presence in the “live free or die” state could make a difference. Real Clear Politics’s average of New Hampshire’s polls has Mr. McCain leading his opponent, 44.7% to 43.3%. And Thursday’s town meeting appearance might boost his numbers — it will mark his second time back to the state since the primary whereas Mr. Obama has not been back since he lost the state to Hillary Clinton.

Central to Mr. McCain’s success in New Hampshire is how he will do with Independents, who are more numerous in the state than Republicans or Democrats. A poll of the University of New Hampshire Survey Center conducted in late April had Mr. McCain beating Mr. Obama among Independents, 61% to 27%.

The state serves as a proxy battle for this important demographic group, voters Mr. McCain needs to capture more than previous Republican candidates. Luckily, there are high hopes for his success with winning over the group.

“McCain has the ability to win these people better than any other Republican in this election cycle,” the chairman of the New Hampshire Republican Party, Fergus Cullen, said.

As important as winning in New Hampshire is for Mr. McCain, his success at town meetings such as Thursday’s one transcends New Hampshire for another reason. For Mr. McCain, the state has an unconventional style of campaigning. Unfortunately, the Arizona senator is a wooden speaker, as his speech last week in Minnesota demonstrated, and critical members of the public, who are typical figures in New Hampshire politics, will pounce on him for this. But he and his campaign gain energy from such encounters.

“McCain seems to feed on challenging his political opponents in a public setting,” Mr. Cullen said. “McCain is looking in the audience for a foil … The contrast in doing that as opposed to other politicians who want to be all things to all people is stark.”

If, however, the 2008 campaign is to be a contest of prepared oratory, Mr. McCain will lose badly. Only by turning to the tactics of being able to give unprepared remarks, which helped turn around his campaign in New Hampshire’s primary, can Mr. McCain competitively compete.

Campaigning this way also can help separate Mr. McCain from President Bush who stumbled when he faced unexpected questions from voters. Mr. Bush’s inability to connect with New Hampshire voters as a campaigner foreshadowed his reluctance to assimilate bad news as president.

That Mr. McCain not only tolerates but actually seeks out dissenting questioners signals to voters a White House which may be more open to internal debate than Mr. Bush’s. And, more importantly, its signals a different kind of White House. Highlighting a difference from Mr. Bush, even a stylistic one, will help Mr. McCain in a year when running as a Republican is a hindrance.

Winning New Hampshire is not a sure thing for Mr. McCain. The Democratic tide in New Hampshire has been rising. In 2006, Democrats took control of the state legislature and won its two seats in Congress. But Mr. McCain, a political maverick during his time in the Senate, has never been afraid of swimming against the current.

Mr. Gitell (gitell.com) is a contributing editor of The New York Sun.


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