Will Eliot Spitzer raise taxes if he’s elected governor? You better believe it. On no less than three separate occasions his spokesperson has told reporters that he refuses to disavow future tax increases. If a candidate says before an election that he won’t rule out a tax hike, he will surely raise taxes if elected. The evidence is clear; there’s no other way to finance an agenda like his.

Let’s start with Medicaid, the single most costly piece of the state budget. New York State spends almost as much on the program as California and Texas combined, even though each of those states has more people. If we don’t wrestle that spending under control, we’ll suffer higher state income taxes, higher local property and sales taxes – or more likely, both.

Mr. Spitzer says he’ll tackle Medicaid. But his first policy proposal was to add more than 1 million New Yorkers to the program. It already covers nearly one in five state residents, compared to one in seven nationwide – a key reason we spend billions more. Adding to those numbers will drive spending, and taxes, even higher.

And, by the way, the attorney general has failed to use the powers he already has to cut spending on Medicaid fraud and abuse. The New York Times reported that such waste may cost taxpayers as much as $18 billion a year. Mr. Spitzer’s staff, who are in charge of prosecuting Medicaid fraud, recover only a tiny fraction of the misused millions.

The reality is that Mr. Spitzer’s liberal-to-leftist supporters don’t want limits on government controlled health programs. These are the people that shut the state Capitol down a couple years back with 900 buses full of unionized hospital workers – demanding a tax increase. In fact, right now they want Albany to impose a huge, new health-care tax on private employers – even those that already provide such benefits.

Currently, one of the hottest issues on the table is a proposal to force employers with 100 or more workers to spend at least $3 an hour on health benefits, or pay the remainder in new taxes. The nonpartisan Employment Policies Institute says this huge new tax could cost employers $9 billion a year, while driving 100,000 jobs out of state.

Where is Mr. Spitzer on this issue? He doesn’t say. But if there’s no decision on the bill this year, and if he’s elected in November, it’s clear the Working Families Party will have carte blanche to push for action in 2007.

After health care, the most expensive part of the state budget is education. A Manhattan judge has ruled that Albany must send $5.6 billion more a year to New York City schools, so children have the resources they need for a good education.

Mr. Spitzer says that’s not enough – that taxpayers should fund big school-spending increases throughout the state. Where does all that money come from? No answer.

One of the first organizations to endorse Mr. Spitzer, almost two years before the 2006 elections, was a creation of unions and liberal interest groups called the Working Families Party. The executive director of the party predicts that a Governor Spitzer would be even more “progressive” – i.e., liberal – than Mario Cuomo. I’m sure he’s right. Then there is the Civil Service Employees Association, a public employee union supporting Mr. Spitzer. He stood shoulder-to-shoulder with the leaders of that union in calling for an increase in the state workforce.

Just a few days ago, Mr. Spitzer touted the replacement of the Tappan Zee Bridge as one of the “mega projects” he would undertake as governor. As usual, he made no mention of how to finance the multi-billion dollar project. But by making clear his intention to restrict competition in the bidding process only to union contractors, he certainly identified a way to increase costs.

Albany’s fiscal experts say the state faces a budget gap of $5 billion or more in 2007. That large a gap will require a major tax increase – even without big new government programs – unless the next governor is determined to control Medicaid spending, stand up to special interests, and force serious structural changes in Albany. That’s my plan.

The Spitzer plan? Raise taxes, then raise them again.

Mr. Faso, the former minority leader of the New York State Assembly, is a Republican candidate for governor.