For better or worse, scripted television shows are returning to the airwaves. The Writers Guild of America is in the process of ending their three month strike, and ratifying a new labor deal with the major television studios. While the WGA is claiming a small victory, the long-term consequences of the dispute are far less clear. In fact, the strike itself might be another episode in the eventual demise of many writing jobs for television shows.

Writers walked the picket lines mainly over how they would be compensated for their work product when it is shown on the Internet. They think the Internet is the new frontier for television show delivery and thus wanted to ensure that they would receive a piece of the pie.

The ratified agreement does give writers a 2% share of the fee that is paid when television shows are played online in the final year of the contract. In exchange for the increased Internet revenues, the writers agreed not to take a greater cut in DVD royalties, a questionable trade off at best. So the overall economic benefit to writers is murky. Moreover, the 2% Internet share could end up being a pittance. Some writers claimed they already have lost more money by going on strike than what they will gain with the new agreement.

The thinking is that at least this low percentage gives them a foothold in the online video industry. That might be true, but the newly ratified contract runs through 2011, a virtual century in Internet terms. If online video explodes in the way that some envision, writers still will be missing out on tremendous economic gains in the interim.

More important than the direct economic issues involved are the peripheral effects of the strike. While the labor stoppage was a major issue in Hollywood and forced the cancellation of the Golden Globes, middle America greeted it with a collective yawn. That’s because consumer tastes have changed dramatically when it comes to television, with reality television and high-stakes game shows now ruling the ratings roost.

Most Americans went on watching the reality television shows and hardly anyone quit watching television because of the writer’s strike. This was one picket line that Americans, both unionized and non-unionized, crossed every day.

The continued popularity of reality shows during the strike has convinced studio heads that they can cut back even further on scripted work. Scripted shows have already declined by 20% since 2003 and the Wall Street Journal reported on Monday that more cuts could be on the horizon.

In many ways, the confluence of circumstances Hollywood writers are facing is similar to the globalization and technology challenges confronting other news and entertainment industries. In particular, newspapers, magazines, and other traditional print sources have struggled with the growing presence of free content on the Internet. That’s why, from a theoretical standpoint, the writers strike made sense. The writers did need to take a stand. But while doing so, it seems that they also showed their bosses that demand for them is not as great as it used to be. Talk about the ultimate catch-22.

While all of these challenges are new for Hollywood and the media, other unionized industries have been grappling with similar problems for 30 years. Unionized steel and auto workers tried strikes and labor stoppages, but, ultimately to no avail. The reality is their work environment changed dramatically, and both the unions and the companies did not adapt quickly enough to the new challenges and environment.

Whether or not the fate of the writers is any different from those of the steel and auto workers remains to be seen. The one lesson that industrial workers learned is that altering the edges of a failing model is not a recipe for long-term success.

Given all of the challenges from reality television, studio cutbacks, and the growth of the Internet, it seems likely that the small gains in the new labor contract for WGA members will not ward off more fundamental changes down the road. Some writers might be wise to prepare for a series finale of their own.

Mr. O’Keefe is a labor policy consultant in Washington, D.C.