Whose Reality to Believe?

This article is from the archive of The New York Sun before the launch of its new website in 2022. The Sun has neither altered nor updated such articles but will seek to correct any errors, mis-categorizations or other problems introduced during transfer.

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Whose reality? That’s the essential question about Iraq. I’m not there. I can only read as much as I can and try and make sense of it. I sure hope the president’s boundless optimism is right, but it was a little worrying to hear his response to criticism earlier this week. Here’s a telling passage from the Washington Post:



“Later, asked by reporters about calls from GOP Sens. John McCain (Ariz.) and Chuck Hagel (Neb.) for a more candid assessment about the Iraq situation, Bush replied that both men ‘want me elected as president. We agree that the world is better off with Saddam Hussein sitting in a prison cell. And that stands in stark contrast to the statement my opponent made yesterday, when he said that the world was better off with Saddam in power.’ Kerry has said he would not have waged war in Iraq if he had been president but has asserted that ‘the world is better off’ without Hussein in power.”


So the president’s main concern is not whether those senators are right, but whether they are voting for him. That seems consonant with his general approach. And then he misrepresents his opponent’s position. The Washington Post then notes the following:



“Bush also played down the significance of a CIA report forecasting more difficulty in Iraq. ‘The CIA laid out several scenarios and said life could be lousy, life could be okay, life could be better, and they were just guessing as to what the conditions might be like,’ he said. The confidential August report to policymakers, according to an administration official who described it yesterday, outlined three scenarios over the next 18 months: a period of ‘tenuous stability,’ a time of ‘further fragmentation and extremism’ or a period of ‘trending to civil war.'”


It seems the president reads this CIA report the way he read previous assessments of Iraq’s weapons of mass destruction: He reads what he wants to read. Look, this war has to succeed; and if this president is re-elected in November, we will all have to do whatever we can to make sure he wins against the terrorists. But it is not crazy now to ask whether he has enough of a grip on the situation to carry us forward. His comments yesterday suggest that the cocoon is intact. Which is as worrying as any news from Iraq.


Good News From Syria


An interesting development from the online war-strategy Web site, Stratfor:



“More than 1,000 of the some 20,000 Syrian troops based in Lebanon began dismantling their bases near Beirut to redeploy closer to the Syrian border or to leave the country altogether, a Lebanese official said Sept. 21. The official, who declined to be named, said Syrian troops have started moving from hilltop positions south of Beirut in the towns of Aramoun, Chuweifat, Damour, Doha and Khaldeh. The second phase of the operation involves a shift of troops from eastern and northern areas to the eastern part of Lebanon’s Bekaa Valley or to the border. The redeployment is scheduled for completion in a few days. With this massive redeployment, Syrian President Bashar al Assad is indicating to Israel and the United States that he is ready to strike a deal that could lead to the complete withdrawal of Syrian forces from Lebanon. This could signal Damascus’ willingness to stand down from its non-cooperative stance toward the United States – yet another example of the immense geopolitical shift in the region resulting from the U.S. ouster of the Saddam Hussein regime in Iraq.”


The best news I’ve heard in a long time.


Civilian Deaths


Here’s a point worth remembering from an Australian journalist:



“The anti-war website Iraqbodycount.net estimates that between 11,487 and 13,458 Iraqis have been killed since the start of the war. Added to that are 1049 coalition deaths listed. That is a staggering 14,507 deaths since March 19 last year – a horrendous average of 28.5 people, real human beings, a day for the 509 days. How could this ever be justified? Wouldn’t Iraq have been better off without this? It is estimated that Saddam killed between 500,000 and 1 million of his own people in the 13 years since the Gulf War, not including the effects of the sanctions. The lower number averages out to be 105 a day. Assuming Saddam had stayed in power, as the anti-war movement would have had, and assuming his regime did not fundamentally change, Saddam could have killed between 53,445 and 106,890 innocent people in the same 509 days. In other words, the war probably cost between 38,938 and 92,383 fewer lives than the so-called peace would have cost.”


Couldn’t agree more. It’s just that using the standard of Saddam Hussein is not exactly morally reassuring about our current conduct.



Mr. Sullivan writes every day for www.andrewsullivan.com.


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