President Bush came to power in gentler times, promising “prosperity with a purpose.” The implicit premise was that abundance had been achieved – the “new economy” had forever vanquished the vexatious bores who warned of scarcity and limits – and that we had finally reached a kind of postmaterialist plateau.

It sounded like a gas, and it’s no surprise that just about half of the electorate signed up. It had not been a very weighty or serious campaign. A Bush presidency seemed to many a luxury the nation could afford. Bill Clinton had been a fine governor of America but the swing voting masses had developed a hitherto unknown taste for a Texas twang, and the rest, as they say, is history.

But history is written by the victors, and we have every reason to expect that definitively chronicling the successes and triumphs, and the failures and foibles – if not, in the hands of our more gifted polemicists, the criminal malfeasance and skullduggery – of the Bush administration will prove as hotly disputed an enterprise as the Iraq war, Tora Bora, the tax cuts, the faith-based initiative, the commemorative ceremony marking the tragic, untimely demise of Spot, the president’s pooch, and literally everything else associated with what has been the most hair-raising presidency since the days of Richard Nixon.

Which is why Mr. Bush’s address to the Republican National Convention means absolutely nothing. Insiders know that there won’t be any bold new domestic policy initiatives – a few changes to the tax code here and there, but nothing sweeping. Anything beyond that would invite suspicion and attack. It would take the focus off the war on terrorism, Mr. Bush’s most potent issue. We know where he stands, the lines are drawn, and “events” are in the driver’s seat.

What of the moderate tenor of the convention thus far? Won’t Mr. Bush continue in this vein, and in the process win over at least some of his detractors? Consider what we’ve heard so far. That Governor Schwarzenegger gave a remarkable speech on Tuesday night is beyond dispute. His is an inspiring story that almost makes one wish that America, like the Philippines and several states in India, were ruled by a ragtag collection of fading movie stars, complete with pomade or, for the ladies, colorful saris.

Nevertheless, wags of a leftish bent have managed to have fun at his expense. So Richard Nixon is the man who inspired a young Schwarzenegger, fresh off the metaphorical boat from Austria, to embrace the GOP? The notion, to their ears, is too delicious for words. Nixon’s name, after all, has long been associated with corruption of the worst kind. And similar charges, with varying degrees of seriousness and venom, have been made against the Bush administration.

In the minds of many activists protesting in the hot and humid streets around Madison Square Garden, particularly those comfortably ensconced in the warm embrace of a prosperous late middle age, things have come full circle. Long ago, they were weaned on tales of Tricky Dick’s villainy, and now they are taking a stand of their own against a warmonger at least as sinister as their childhood bete noire. Some have even brought their own children to join in the fun. It’s enough to warm the cockles of even the coldest conservative heart, in this case, mine.

This is the stuff of political conviction: tribal passions and deep-seated historical animosities. If Mr. Bush knocks it out of the park with his speech, and there’s every reason to believe he will, will a single one of the righteous lefties outside be swayed? Of course not.

If he pledges to burn various terrorists in effigy on the White House lawn as part of a new voodoo-based strategy, will it displease rock-ribbed Republicans enough to vote against him? Probably not. They will instead read it as yet another display of Mr. Bush’s iron resolve.

But then, that’s not the issue – swing voters are the ostensible target. Will any swing voters be swayed by the president’s words? Quite possibly. And perhaps a dull, cloudy Tuesday will swing them right back, with fists clenched and a shrill cry blaming the unfortunate weather conditions on the very same president the swing voters in question had tentatively embraced just a short time before.

Mr. Bush and his chief political strategists realize that appealing to these famously volatile voters won’t get them very far, and so they are shrewdly focusing on registering and mobilizing evangelical voters in key states. This approach, coupled with Senator Kerry’s continuing collapse in must-win states such as Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, will in all likelihood secure Mr. Bush’s re-election. It will also alienate young voters and unmarried women, both crucial constituencies, and it won’t arrest the continuing drift of Latinos to the Democrats. How’s that for a victory lap?

Stirring speeches aside, the Republicans are whistling past the graveyard. Tonight’s speech by Mr. Bush can’t change that. The best conservatives can hope for is a cleansing, fratricidal bloodbath after the election.