Parties Look to Legislative Elections Looming in Virginia as Testing Ground for 2024

On November 7, voters in Virginia will head to the polls for the general assembly and state senate elections, and the results will be closely watched as national political parties prepare for 2024.At the center of the campaign are Governor Youngkin and state Republicans’ proposed 15-week abortion ban, which they are pushing as a compromise position on the issue.If Republicans are able to post big wins in Virginia, the state-level strategy could serve as a blueprint for national Republicans struggling to find a popular message on abortion.In the campaign, Democrats and Republicans in the state have rolled out ad campaigns focusing on abortion and painting their opponent as extremists. “Republicans want to protect life at 15 weeks, when a baby can feel pain, with exceptions for rape, incest, and to protect the life of the mother,” one GOP ad says. “We need leaders with common sense, not extreme agendas.” Democrats have highlighted the policies adopted by Republicans around the country that ban abortions and bills, which have not yet passed, sponsored by some state-level Republicans in places like Texas to charge women who receive abortions with assault or homicide. “It’s happening all around us,” one Democratic ad says. “MAGA Republicans in Richmond want Virginia to be next … defunding planned parenthood, a total abortion ban, no exceptions, women and doctors in jail.”An associate editor at Sabato’s Crystal Ball at the University of Virginia Center for Politics, Miles Coleman, tells the Sun that “the stakes here are probably especially high, especially with the abortion issue. Virginia is really the last Southern state with relatively loose abortion laws.”Mr. Coleman says that the elections will be a testing ground for messaging from both Democrats and Republicans. Of the recent Republican messaging, Mr. Coleman said the GOP is trying to “take the bull by the horns” by calling Democrats extremists on the issue. This strategy was also deployed last year in Arizona by venture capitalist Blake Masters, who lost in the Senate race.By all accounts, the competition in the battle in Virginia is fierce, and it’s still anyone’s game. Once roundly conservative, Virginia in the last decade has become a battleground state in recent decades.A recent Wason Center for Civic Leadership at Christopher Newport University poll found support for Democrats and Republicans statistically tied, at 42 percent support for Democrats and 41 percent for Republicans.“This margin is particularly slim and well within the survey’s margin of error, suggesting that control of the General Assembly is truly up for grabs,” a memo accompanying the poll reads.In Virginia, abortion is currently allowed through the second trimester, around 26 weeks. After the second trimester, a woman can still receive an abortion if her pregnancy poses a threat to her life or a serious threat to her health.The survey found that, on the issue of abortion, Democrats appear to have the wind at their back, with 49 percent supporting maintaining the current policy and another 23 percent wanting fewer restrictions on abortion. Twenty-four percent wanted more restrictions on abortion.When asked specifically about the Republican proposal, 54 percent said that they would oppose it, and 39 percent said that they would support it.The issue of abortion also appears to be influencing voter enthusiasm, with 70 percent of Democrats saying they are enthusiastic about voting compared to 61 percent of Republicans.The Virginia elections will also be closely watched due to Mr. Youngkin’s involvement in the race. Mr. Youngkin has of late come under some pressure from big donors, anxious to find a viable alternative to President Trump, to enter the Republican presidential primary but has so far declined, saying he’s focusing on Virginia.Mr. Youngkin’s way of dismissing presidential ambition has, however, only heightened speculation that a big win in Virginia could be the first step in launching a late entry into the GOP primary.Others in Republican circles, like attorney and GOP donor Eric Levine, see the idea of a late entry as a pipe dream, telling the Associated Press, “I think it’s ill-conceived and a really horrible idea,” adding, “It is doomed to failure and will only damage his brand.”In terms of what parties and strategists can learn from the Virginia elections, Mr. Coleman says he’s paying attention to the sort of coalition that Democrats and Republicans are able to turn out.He says if Democrats can maintain their coalition of college-educated voters in metropolitan areas, that’s a good sign for them going into 2024. Mr. Coleman is also watching for whether Democrats are able to get Black voters and other minorities to the polls in the state.“Something some people papered over in 2022 is that minority turnout was not that great in not just Virginia but the rest of the South,” Mr. Coleman says, adding that the issue probably wouldn’t hurt Democrats too much in Virginia in 2024 but could be decisive in a state like Georgia.

Parties Look to Legislative Elections Looming in Virginia as Testing Ground for 2024

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