GM, Ford Shares Hit New Lows; Time to Buy?

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If you like to bargain hunt among stocks hitting new lows, take a fresh look at automakers.


General Motors Corporation, Ford Motor Company, and several auto-parts makers have hit 52-week lows within the last few days.


Traditionally, the wise time to buy these cyclical stocks was when the companies were losing money. That’s not the case now – at least not yet – so I think the automakers may be buys. The stock market is always changing, and I believe it is more of an anticipatory beast than ever.


Auto stocks have been punished in advance for the sins they presumably are about to commit. As the Federal Reserve raises interest rates this year and perhaps next, investors anticipate that automotive companies’ sales and earnings will evaporate.


Maybe that will happen. Yet I would say that historically, you wouldn’t have done badly to buy General Motors and Ford when they trade for less than 0.15 times per-share revenue, as they do now.


Each March since 1999 and each October since 2001, I have recommended a few stocks that are trading at or near 52-week lows. The average gain on the 10 sets of recommendations, for time periods varying from six months to six years, has been 60%.


Over the same 10 periods, the average gain for the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index has been 17%.


Not all my recommended lists were successes. Six of the 10 lists have beaten the S&P 500; nine of the 10 have been profitable.


This time out, I recommend half a dozen stocks: General Motors (GM), Ford (F), American Axle & Manufacturing Holdings (AXL), TD Banknorth (BNK), Ryan Restaurant Group (RYAN) and Jones Apparel Group (JNY).


Three automotive stocks out of six? Am I crazy?


Many people would say so. General Motors says its production in the first quarter will be 12% below year-ago levels. Ford expects a 10% decline. Car sales in February were below January’s, which in turn were below December’s.


The bear case on auto stocks runs something like this: Car companies achieved robust sales in 2002-04 by tantalizing consumers with sales incentives and easy financing terms. These tactics stole sales from 2005-06, which will therefore be weak. The average age of cars and light trucks on the road is lower than usual. With a rise in interest rates widely anticipated, plus high gasoline and steel prices, you have a recipe for disaster.


The bearish argument makes some sense. And yet, I wonder whether things will be quite as bad as the pessimists fear. I am not sure that the Federal Reserve will need to be as relentless and stern as many people think.


Automotive stocks are cheap now, by most measures. If you take the 49 stocks that hit new lows in the week that ended March 4, and rank them by price-earnings ratio from lowest to highest, the first six entries will be automotive stocks.


General Motors has the lowest P-E ratio, 5.4. Then comes Ford, at 5.9, American Axle at 7.7, Lear at 8, Dana Corp. at 9.4 and ArvinMeritor Inc. at 9.5.


On March 2, Lear shares dropped 11% after the company cut its earnings forecast. Shares of other auto-parts makers followed Lear’s example and fell too.


I don’t necessarily think this is an ideal time to buy automakers and autoparts stocks. They might indeed fall further during the next 12 months. If you buy now, however, I think you will be glad in five years.


Among the parts makers, my pick (which I own for clients) is American Axle, mostly because its debt is lighter than most at 47% of stockholders’ equity. I also like its 2.4% dividend yield and the fact that it makes transmission parts largely for light trucks and sports utility vehicles.


Outside the auto realm, I like TD Banknorth, which offers banking services in New England and New York. This month, Toronto-Dominion Bank, Canada’s second-largest bank, acbers ranged from respectable to good. For example, it posted a 1.1% return on assets and a 10.7% return on stockholders’ equity.


TD Banknorth’s stock valuations are modest – 14 times earnings and 1.8 times book value (corporate net worth per share).


Ryan’s Restaurant Group, which runs the Ryan’s Family Steak House chain, has posted positive earnings 18 years in a row. Analysts expect that this year will be slightly better than last, perhaps $1.17 a share, up from $1.11.


Ryan’s reported a weak fourth quarter, with earnings of 22 cents a share, down from 28 cents a share the previous year. I think that investors should be tolerant, considering the stock’s times revenue.


Finally, I suggest Jones Apparel, which hit a low of $31.61 on March 1. Based in Bristol, Pa., Jones makes Anne Klein clothing and Nine West shoes. Many of its sales are through medium-priced department stores, a segment for which the financial press seems ready to write an obituary, but which I think will bounce back.


Investors are taking a harsh view of an 18% profit decline that Jones announced for the fourth quarter. They may be right, yet bear in mind that Jones has shown earnings growth averaging almost 10% per year the last five years and sales growth close to 8%.


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