Poll: Stormy Daniels May Have Recharged Trump’s Campaign, but More Indictments Would Hurt Him in General Election

The pollster warned in a statement that further indictments of President Trump could produce ‘the worst loss for a GOP presidential candidate in 60 years.’

AP/Bryan Woolston
President Trump leaves Trump Tower at New York April 4, 2023. AP/Bryan Woolston

A new survey from a firm with ties to Governor DeSantis finds that further indictments of President Trump could seriously hurt him in the general election, even though the current criminal charges regarding the porn star Stormy Daniels may have have reenergized his base.

The poll was conducted by WPA Research, a Republican polling firm. Its CEO, Chris Wilson, is also an adviser to the DeSantis-affiliated Never Back Down committee.

In a statement from a principal at WPA, Amanda Iovino, President Biden “would be spared a much-needed one-way trip to Delaware” if Mr. Trump wins the nomination.

“Contrary to what one may hear on Truth Social, Trump’s indictment, in either the pending Georgia or federal cases, would energize Democrats, not Republicans,” she said.

According to Ms. Iovino, these indictments could potentially produce “the worst loss for a GOP presidential candidate in 60 years.”

“In the process, Republicans would lose control of the House and forego pick-up opportunities in the Senate,” she said

The poll, first obtained by the Independent, reports that the polling firm’s was not involved in the execution of the survey of 1,571 registered voters.

The poll found, consistent with other recent polls of registered voters, that Mr. Biden leads Mr. Trump by about seven points, 47 percent to 40 percent.

Mr. Biden also leads by a bigger margin with the key demographic of independents, 14 points. In 2020, Mr. Biden defeated Mr. Trump despite leading with independents by 9 points.

What this poll measures that other surveys have not is how the race could change with indictments of Mr. Trump, specifically with indictments by the Fulton County district attorney, Fani Willis, and by Special Counsel Jack Smith.

Ms. Willis is handling the investigation into Mr. Trump’s efforts to overturn the 2020 presidential election in Georgia; an indictment is expected to come as soon as this summer.

According to the survey, an indictment from Ms. Willis would see Mr. Biden’s lead grow to 10 points, with Mr. Biden enjoying 49 percent support to Mr. Trump’s 39 percent support.

The survey also found that an indictment from Mr. Smith’s investigation into Mr. Trump’s handling of classified documents would carry similar effects, pushing Mr. Biden’s lead to 11 points, 50 percent to 39 percent.

Independents are the group on which these indictments would have the biggest effect. If either Ms. Willis or Mr. Smith indicts Mr. Trump, Mr. Biden’s lead among independents is set to grow to 21 points, from 14 points.

Still, Mr. Trump remains extremely popular among Republicans, with 68 percent of GOP respondents saying they are “definitely” prepared to vote for him, regardless of whether he is indicted.

Only 5 percent of GOP respondents said an indictment would persuade them to vote for Mr. Biden, and another 13 percent said they would “probably” vote for Mr. Trump in the event of an indictment.


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