Poll Suggests That Majority of Republicans Would Vote for Trump Even if He Is Convicted of Felonies

A new survey of Americans suggests that a felony conviction of President Trump could be a deal breaker for most Americans, despite the fact that most Republicans say they would vote for him even if convicted.The survey, conducted by Ipsos for Reuters, found that just 25 percent of Americans say they would support Mr. Trump in the event of a felony conviction. Another 59 percent of Americans say they would not vote for Mr. Trump if he is convicted. About 16 percent say that they “don’t know.”Broken down by partisan affiliation, the vast majority of Democrats, 86 percent, say they would not vote for Mr. Trump if he’s convicted. Just 8 percent say they would support him.Among Republican respondents, a slim majority, 52 percent, say they would support Mr. Trump if he’s convicted, and 31 percent say they would not. Another 17 percent say they don’t know what they would do, meaning that Republicans are about evenly split on voting for Mr. Trump after a potential conviction.“This suggests the trials pose a real risk to Trump’s base of support — particularly the trials that will be held in front of juries such as the DC-based trial on the events around January 6,” a senior vice president for public affairs at Ipsos, Chris Jackson, tells the Sun.A majority of independents — 66 percent — also said they would not support Mr. Trump if he is convicted. Just 15 percent of independent respondents say they would support Mr. Trump, and 19 percent said that they don’t know.Republicans were also likely to deny that Mr. Trump committed any crimes related to his statements about election fraud, his efforts to encourage the rioters on January 6, and his calling state officials in an effort to change the 2020 election outcome and remain in office.Among Republicans, 66 percent said it was either not very believable or not believable at all that Mr. Trump “solicited election fraud.” Another 71 percent said it was either not very believable or not believable at all that Mr. Trump “tried to incite a mob to attack the U.S. Capitol on January 6, 2021 to overturn the election results.”A plurality of Republicans, 49 percent, said that it was either not very believable or not believable at all that Mr. Trump “called state officials in an attempt to get them to change the 2020 election outcome in their state in an effort to stay president.”A majority, 62 percent, of Republicans also agreed with the statement that “the 2020 election was stolen from Donald Trump.” Only 12 percent of Democrats and 23 percent of independents said the same.Majorities of both Democrats and independents reported saying that it was believable that Mr. Trump solicited election fraud, incited a mob to attack the Capitol, and called state officials in an attempt to change the 2020 election outcome.The survey also asked Americans what they thought about recent rhetoric from Mr. Trump, including his comments calling some Americans “vermin.” When asking the question, however, the pollster did not mention Mr. Trump’s name in the question.Among Republicans, 71 percent said they agree with his statement that there are “communists, Marxists, fascists and the radicalleft thugs that live like vermin within the confines of our countrythat lie and steal and cheat on elections.”A minority of both Democrats and independents also agreed with this statement — 37 percent and 43 percent, respectively.“This suggests the significant amounts of anti-elite anger and populist discontent remain in the population, and Trump’s attacks against the establishment might be hitting that nerve, even among people who are opposed to him personally,” Mr. Jackson tells the Sun.The poll also measured the importance of issues to Americans, with “the economy” and respondents’ “personal economic situation” being either the most important issues or a very important issue for 71 percent of respondents.Another 65 percent of respondents said the same for crime, 57 percent said the same for “elites interfering with your freedom,” and 51 percent said gun restrictions were either the most important issue or a very important issue.Abortion rights was the fifth most important issue, with 50 percent of respondents saying it was either the most important issue or very important.The survey of 4,411 Americans was conducted between December 5 and 11 and had a margin of error of plus or minus 1.8 points for all respondents, 2.7 points for Democrats, 2.9 points for Republicans, and 5.5 points for independents.

Poll Suggests That Majority of Republicans Would Vote for Trump Even if He Is Convicted of Felonies

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