Just over one year before the midterm elections, polling shows some warning signs for Democrats that may boost President Trump’s hopes. Even though the president himself has seen his approval rating collapse in recent months, his opposition is faring even worse. 

According to polling aggregators, Mr. Trump is the least popular president in his first year, with one exception — himself in 2017. By the time the 2018 midterms came, the president’s party was able to expand its control of the Senate thanks to the geography of the map, though the GOP did suffer an historic loss in the House, where Democrats picked up 41 seats, their biggest gain in a midterm since 1974. 

Now that Mr. Trump has returned to the White House, Democrats are hoping for a similar performance. A number of polls released in recent days, however, suggest the party is struggling to gain momentum. 

According to the polling, Mr. Trump’s approval rating sits somewhere around 43 percent and his disapproval rating hovering around 53 or 54 percent. On key issues like the economy — where during his first term he received relatively high marks — voters are souring on Mr. Trump due to persistently high consumer prices, which drove many to vote for the Republican ticket in 2024. 

A CBS News–YouGov poll released Sunday finds Mr. Trump 24 points underwater on the issue of handling the economy, with 38 percent approving and 62 percent disapproving. A poll also released Sunday from NBC News finds the same result, with only 34 percent of voters saying Mr. Trump has “lived up” to his economic promises, while 63 percent saying he has failed to do so. A Washington Post–ABC News–Ipsos poll released Sunday mirrors those results, with 37 percent approving of his economic management and 62 percent disapproving. 

While those numbers may seem encouraging for the Democrats who have been locked out of power, their own polling numbers offer little comfort. The same polls find that the Republican Party generally is still seen as a better governing manager of America’s economic well-being. The CBS News–YouGov poll finds 35 percent of voters trust the GOP to handle the economy, while 28 percent trust Democrats. 

The NBC News survey finds that 38 percent trust the GOP to manage the economy, compared to 37 percent trust the Democrats. In December 2017 — less than one year before the 2018 midterms — Democrats had a five-point advantage over the Republicans on questions of economic prosperity, with 35 percent favoring the Democrats then and just 30 percent favoring the then-governing GOP. 

On other key issues, Democrats are similarly falling behind. Voters to the tune of only 26 percent say Democrats would handle immigration best of the two parties, while 39 percent say Mr. Trump and the Republicans, according to the CBS News–YouGov poll. 

The NBC News survey is even worse for the opposition party. On the issue of border security, 22 percent favor the Democrats and 53 percent favor the Republicans. On crime, only 24 percent of voters say Democrats would handle it best, compared to 46 percent who say the GOP. On immigration, 29 percent say Democrats would manage it best, while 47 percent say Republicans. 

The only issues where Democrats lead, according to the NBC News poll, are protecting constitutional rights and democracy, and dealing with health care. 

The generic ballot for Democrats next year is not where it needs to be if the party has any hope of repeating its 2018 success. The Washington Post–ABC News–Ipsos poll shows the opposition party with a mere three-point lead on the generic ballot for 2026. In the weeks leading up to the 2018 midterms, Democrats held an 11-point advantage over Republicans on that question. 

Republicans are very aware of these metrics, and they seem more than happy. Mr. Trump’s deputy chief of staff for legislative and political affairs, James Blair, posted on X on Sunday morning that the generic ballot question is key, considering how much better Republicans are faring now than they were in late 2017. 

“Key Takeaway: By historical standards, midterm outlook is fine [right now] for [the] GOP,” Mr. Blair wrote. 

Like Mr. Blair, the president — who has consistently dismissed poor polls for him as “fake” — is expressing optimism. “I have the best poll numbers I’ve ever had,” he told reporters on Air Force One last week. “I have the best numbers for any president in many years — any president.”