President Biden Gets Cocky on the Inflation Rate

In Biden’s term so far, consumer prices have gone up 16 percent, with grocery prices up 20 percent and energy prices up 33 percent.

AP/Manuel Balce Ceneta
President Biden leaves St. Edmund Roman Catholic Church at Rehoboth Beach, Delaware, July 29, 2023. AP/Manuel Balce Ceneta

There’s a political debate stemming from the recent softening of inflation. President Biden on Friday baited Republicans by saying, “Go ahead, impeach me,” because inflation has come down. Well, Mr. President, your impeachability has nothing to do with the lower inflation rate. A big reason for that, by the way, is all the corruption charges popping up like tulips in springtime, but that’s for another time.  

It’s the Federal Reserve tightening money supply and raising interest rates that has brought down the inflation rate. I wouldn’t get too cocky about it, Mr. President, because roughly 35 percent of voters disapprove of your economic policies — and mostly they’re referring to inflation.  

Because, over the past 30 months, the level of consumer prices has gone up 16 percent, with grocery prices up 20 percent and energy prices up 33 percent. We’re checking on the prices of Rehoboth Beach mansions for you, Mr. President. Want to make sure your real estate holdings are doing okay. 

Gasoline was about $2 when you were elected. It did jump to $5 nationwide, but it’s running about $3.75 today. Just in case you wondered, sir, $3.75 is higher than $2, and that’s really your big problem.  

Now, I’m not sure inflation is dead altogether, because we’re seeing a big rally in commodities, gold, and oil. That’s recent — in the last month or two — but I want to raise a point that has nothing to do with politics.  

That is, the inflation rate can fall without putting the labor force out of work, or driving up the unemployment rate. For over 50 years or more, liberal economists have argued that lower inflation requires higher unemployment. It’s called the Phillips Curve. Yet it’s not true: The evidence has never proven that.  

Recently, a Federal Reserve governor, Christopher Waller, has been debating a former Treasury secretary, Larry Summers, about this. Mr. Summers thought the unemployment rate had to go to at least 5 percent to get inflation down. Mr. Waller said no, there’s plenty of job openings to mitigate labor force tightening. Well, he was right, and Mr. Summers was wrong. 

Lately, a former Obama adviser who is now Chicago Fed president, Austan Goolsbee, has said the Phillips Curve doesn’t work. Right — I’ve been saying that for my entire professional career.  

Yet A.W. Phillips argued long ago, in the 1950s, that lower unemployment would increase wages, which I think is true. But he never said rising wages perforce cause higher inflation.  

Classical supply-siders have always argued that inflation is a monetary problem. Go back to Nobelist Milton Friedman, or Robert Mundell, or Art Laffer, or even yours truly. A rising price level is a function of excess money created by the Fed.  

And you’ll know that when commodity prices, including gold, start rising rapidly. Or various bond market-based indicators of inflation. The point is: More people working is a good thing. As is lower unemployment.  

With the right tax incentives, more people working produce more goods, which is actually counter-inflationary. Hold the gold-commodity value of the dollar stable, and produce more goods, and you’ll get lower inflation with faster economic growth.  

That, by the way, is exactly what we need today.  

In the 1970s, inflation and unemployment went up together. In the 1980s, inflation and unemployment went down together. The problem here is Bidenomics is producing increases in government spending, which may be responsible for as much as 45 percent of the recent rise in the economy.  

That is not consistent with low inflation, because all of those deficits and debt borrowing could force the Fed to print too much cash, drive up commodities, and drive down the dollar. In other words, Mr. President, you’re inflating — while the Fed is trying to deflate.  

I don’t want to impeach you for it. You have enough alleged scandals on that score. I just want to tell you that the policy is unhealthy to the future of this great country. That’s not an impeachable offense, but it will lead to a long-run American decline, which is a tragedy.   

From Mr. Kudlow’s broadcast on Fox Business News.


The New York Sun

© 2024 The New York Sun Company, LLC. All rights reserved.

Use of this site constitutes acceptance of our Terms of Use and Privacy Policy. The material on this site is protected by copyright law and may not be reproduced, distributed, transmitted, cached or otherwise used.

The New York Sun

Sign in or  create a free account

By continuing you agree to our Privacy Policy and Terms of Use