‘Racially and Ethnically Diverse’ Coalition Fueled Trump 2024 Victory, New Survey Finds

President Trump thumped Vice President Harris in the 2024 presidential election because he drew support from “a voter coalition that was more racially and ethnically diverse than in 2020 or 2016,” a new study suggests.A new Pew Research Center study, which combines survey data from poll-takers with information from voter records, highlights significant shifts in voter demographics in last year’s election as Mr. Trump increased his share of support among Hispanic, Black, and Asian voters. His Hispanic support surged to 48 percent in 2024, up from 36 percent in 2020. Support among Black voters grew to 15 percent from 8 percent, while his share among Asian voters rose to 40 percent compared to 30 percent in the previous election.By contrast, Mr. Trump won 28 percent of the Hispanic vote in 2016 and Hillary Clinton took 66 percent. “These shifts were largely due to differences in voter turnout between the 2020 and 2024 elections,” Pew noted in its analysis. While voter consistency played a central role, new and returning voters tipped the scales in favor of Mr. Trump.The report also found that in 2024, Mr. Trump won 85 percent of those who supported him in 2020. Ms. Harris attracted 79 percent of voters who supported President Biden in 2020. One in five 2020 Biden voters either didn’t vote in 2024 (15 percent) or backed Mr. Trump or another candidate (6 percent).“Roughly three-quarters of eligible adults maintained their voting habits from 2020,” the Pew report observed, whether they supported the same political party, switched allegiances, or sat out yet another election. However, the remaining quarter of voters, whether first-timers or vote-switchers, had a decisive impact on Mr. Trump’s pathway to victory.What’s more, Mr. Trump secured 54 percent of the votes from Americans who abstained in 2020, compared to Ms. Harris’s 42 percent. For the record, voter turnout dropped by 3.1 million in 2024 compared to 2020. Pew’s analysis also highlights enduring demographic divides, particularly along lines of education, geography, and religious practice. Education: Non-college-educated voters backed Mr. Trump by a 14-point margin (56 percent to 42 percent) in 2024, up from his previous advantage. Conversely, Ms. Harris dominated among college graduates, winning this group by 16 points (57 percent to 41 percent). These patterns were consistent across White and Hispanic voters, while Black voters showed little division along educational lines. Urban vs. Rural: Mr. Trump maintained strongholds in rural areas, carrying these regions by a 40-point margin. Meanwhile, urban voters heavily favored Ms. Harris, with 65 percent backing her candidacy. Suburban voters, a critical battleground, were much more evenly split.Religious Attendance: Regular religious attendance strongly correlated with support for Mr. Trump. Among voters attending monthly or more frequently, 64 percent supported Mr. Trump compared to 34 percent for Ms. Harris. Less frequent attendees leaned Democratic, with 56 percent supporting Ms. Harris.In an unusual finding, immigrants to America moved toward Mr. Trump in the last election. Naturalized American citizens represented 9 percent of the 2024 electorate. Mr. Biden dominated this group in 2020 with a 59 percent to 38 percent margin, but the 2024 electorate was almost evenly divided, with Ms. Harris winning 51 percent to 47 percent.Gender trends also played a notable role in Mr. Trump’s victory. Men favored Mr. Trump by a 12-point margin (55 percent to 43 percent), a sharp shift from their near-even split in 2020. Younger male voters, in particular, saw significant movement toward Mr. Trump. Among men under 50, support for Mr. Trump climbed to 49 percent compared to 48 percent for Ms. Harris, erasing Mr. Biden’s previous 10-point advantage in this demographic.Even if more eligible voters turned up at the polls, Mr. Trump was still likely to win. In 2024, 44 percent of non-voters expressed a preference for Mr. Trump compared to 40 percent for Ms. Harris. “If somehow every eligible voter had shown up at the polls, it might not have helped the Democrats,” a senior survey advisor at Pew Research, Scott Keeter, said. “It could have even increased Trump’s margin slightly.”In another interesting finding, nearly two-thirds (65 percent) of Americans say the winner of the national popular vote should win the presidency, rather than the winner of the Electoral College. In Mr. Trump’s case, he won both the popular vote by 2.3 million votes and the Electoral College by a 306 to 232 margin.

‘Racially and Ethnically Diverse’ Coalition Fueled Trump 2024 Victory, New Survey Finds

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