Investment Sales Prices Closing In on $2,000 a Square Foot

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The New York Sun

In the year that Barry Bonds is expected to surpass Hank Aaron’s home run record, it looks certain that the investment sales record will be shattered as well.

Investment sales for 2006 reached an all-time record of $34.8 billion, versus $21 billion in 2005. In just the first six months of 2007, meanwhile, sales and properties under contract to be sold exceeded $31.2 billion.

Just as impressive, some real estate experts are predicting sale prices of close to $2,000 a square foot in the near future. Only 18 months ago the record price was less than $1,000 a square foot. The result is big profits for the owners and brokers of commercial property in New York City.

The founder and managing member of Murray Hill Properties, Norman Sturner, said Manhattan office prices are still relatively low compared with rents in other global cities, ranking ninth worldwide according to a recent report. “For the rest of 2007, we can expect more of the same attitudes and altitudes,” he said. “Money is plentiful, corporate profits are up, inflation is in check, job growth is steady and increasing, and Third World countries are beginning to invest here in secure, democratic, fair, and competitive markets.”

The chairman of Massey Knakal Realty Services, Robert Knakal, said the pricing of office buildings in New York “is simply a function of the recognition that for the past 20 years the supply of new construction has been less than half that of each of the four prior decades, not including the reduction of footage from conversion to alternative uses and 9/11. It is not surprising to see triple-digit rents in upper tier buildings, so the sale prices we have seen are simply a manifestation of the demand for space.

“Population trends and employment data show that demand should be on the rise, and that is indeed the case. To the extent this data continues on its current course, we will see $2,000 per square foot pricing by the middle of 2008,” he said.

Last year, the chief operating officer of Stellar Management, Robert Rosania, said to me: “If you think a $1,000 per square foot is a high price to pay for a building, just wait to next year when a building will probably trade for $2,000 per square foot.”

Most everyone wants to own an office building on Park and Madison avenues, especially foreign investors. In June, the highest recorded price on a per square foot basis for an office building was reached when the Italy-based Gruppo Zunino paid $367 million, or $1,467 a square foot, for the 23-story, 250,000-square-foot office condominium at 660 Madison Ave. The seller was Broadway Partners, which purchased the building from Rockwood Capital for $167 million in May 2006. In less than 13 months, Broadway recognized a gain of $200 million, or about 220%.

That record was shattered last week, when Somerset Partners paid $510 million, or $1,589 a square foot, for the 33-story, 350,000-square-foot office building at 450 Park Ave.

The returns some of these investors are earning for relatively short-term holding periods are nothing short of miraculous. The owners of 450 Park Ave., a joint venture of Taconic Investment Partners and the New York State Common Retirement System, purchased the building in 2002 for $158 million. They are recognizing a profit of $352 million, or 322%.

Tishman Speyer Properties, one of Manhattan’s largest owners of commercial and residential real estate — especially when it concludes the purchase of the residential portfolio of Archstone Smith — together with the New York City Employees Retirement System and the Teachers Retirement System, owns a number of Class A office buildings in Manhattan. In 2005, the joint venture paid $1.72 billion, then the highest recorded price for an office building, for the venerable Met Life building at 200 Park Ave. The 58-story building with 3.15 million square feet of office space and substantial retail space might be able to fetch close to $4.5 billion.

The joint venture is now reaping enormous profits on the sale of some of its other real estate properties. Last month, the joint venture sold the New York Times Building on West 43rd Street for $525 million, recognizing a profit of $350 million, or 300%. The joint venture acquired the Times building in December 2004. Also in 2004, the joint venture acquired the leasehold interest in the famed Lipstick Building at 885 Third Ave. for $235 million. In April 2005, it sold a 49% ownership for $164 million, and this month it sold the building for $648.5 million to two Israeli investment companies, Tao Tsuot and Financial Levers.

Douglas Harmon, the senior managing director at the investmentbrokeragethatsold450Park and660Madisonavenues, Eastdil Secured, said global capital “continues to view our shores as a relative bargain compared to many of their home markets. The euro, for example, is up about 50% on the dollar in the last three years. The sale of the Class A properties at 450 Park Ave. and 660 Madison avenues are really poignant recent barometers on where the capital markets are heading. Interest rates are still relatively low, fundamentals continue to be on the move, and liquidity is effervescent; these factors, combined with strong economic indicators and an imbalance of demand versus supply of product, combine to make our markets super robust. It wouldn’t surprise me if some select properties traded over $2,000 a foot within the next 18 months.”

A number of properties are trading at a furious pace in Herald Square, and particularly in buildings that previously housed the garment industry. Skyline Developers, an affiliate of Garden Homes of New Jersey, has been an active player in the residential rental and condominium market. Last week, it entered a contract to purchase the 24-story, 212,000-square-foot building at 1040 Avenue of the Americas, at the corner of West 39th Street. They paid $170 million, or about $801 a square foot. Before the end of the summer, the winning bidder will close on the purchase of the 162,500-square-foot Children’s Wear Building at 131 W. 33rd St. The property was acquired in March by a joint venture of the City Investment Fund and Savanna Management LLC. It paid about $43 million, or $264 a square foot. According to real estate sources, the property will probably sell for more than $70 million. Industry leaders expect S.L. Green Realty Co. to announce the purchaser of its 20-story, 535,000-square-foot building at 1372 Broadway. Based on recent trades in the neighborhood, the property will probably fetch close to $325 million.

As I reported last month, a joint venture of George Comfort, Leon Charney, and other investors paid $180 million for the office building at 119 W. 40th St. The seller was a joint venture of Colliers ABR, which purchased the property in January 2006 for about $100 million.

Sitt Asset Management has been an active buyer and seller of office properties. Earlier this year, it purchased 2 Herald Square, also known as 1328 Broadway, directly across the street from Macy’s. Now it is in the market to sell 180 Madison Ave., the 254,000-square-foot property known as the Lingerie Building at the southwest corner of Madison Avenue and East 34th Street. A few blocks away is the Workmen’s Circle Building at 45 E. 33rd St. between Madison and Park avenues. Industry sources believe the sixstory, 42,715-square-foot building has been sold.

The winning bidder is expected to announced later this month for the sale of the office building at 14 Penn Plaza, also known as 225 W. 34th St., directly across the street from Penn Station. The 22-story, 525,000-square-foot property is expected to fetch close to $300 million.

Another property expected to fetch a high price is the 10-story, 350,000-square-foot office building at 726-730 Broadway, aka 418 Lafayette St. Properties in this area have recently traded for more than $700 a square foot.

Later this month a joint venture of Stellar Management, the Witkoff Organization, and Westbrook Partners is expected to close on the purchase of the 17-story, 156,600-square-foot office building at 405 Park Ave. The joint venture is paying $180 million, or about $1,150 a square foot. The seller is NBg International Holdings B.V., which, according to title records, acquired the property on April 28, 2006, for $54.2 million. This investor is earning a 332% profit, or $125.8 million, for a 14-month investment.

Broadway Partners is reinvesting its profits from the sale of Class A properties in Manhattan. In May, it purchased the 510,000-square-foot, 29-story office building at 100 Wall St. It also acquired the 21-story, 1.2 million square-foot Park Avenue Atrium at 237 Park Ave. In June, a joint venture of Broadway Partners investors purchased the 16-story, 1.6 million-square-foot headquarters of the Daily News at 450 W. 33rd St.

Broadway Partners purchased the office buildings at 100 Wall St. and 237 Park Ave. from Beacon Capital Partners. Real estate sources believe Beacon will be the winning bidder for the 1.1 million-square-foot office building at 32 Old Slip, also known as One Financial Square in Lower Manhattan, which will trade for close to $750 million. The seller is the Paramount Group, which purchased the building in 1995 for about $135 million.

Real estate sources have confirmed to The New York Sun that the Roosevelt Hotel on Madison Avenue and 45th Street will be marketed for sale. The 1,015-room hotel, which opened in 1924, is expected to sell as a development site for an office building. With vacancy rates at all-time lows and the pressing need for office space in Midtown, this site could fetch close to $1 billion.

I definitely concur with the chief operating officer for the New York metro region of Cushman & Wakefield, Joseph Harbert, when he says: “The market is as hot as the weather — the hottest commercial market we have experienced in recent years.”

Mr. Stoler, a contributing editor to the Sun, is a television and radio broadcaster and senior principal at a real estate investment fund. He can be reached at mstoler@newyorkrealestatetv.com.


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